Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented 19.2% implied probability for China annual CPI below -1.0% in 2026, closely trailed by mild deflation (-0.4% to 0.0% at 14.7%) and low positive bands around 13%, reflecting deep uncertainty over demand recovery amid structural headwinds. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 1.3% year-over-year—its highest in three years—fueled by Lunar New Year holiday spending and cost-push pressures from Mideast oil shocks pushing Brent above $100, prompting banks like Standard Chartered to lift full-year forecasts to 1.2%. Yet persistent producer price deflation (PPI -0.9%) signals overcapacity and weak consumption, offsetting reflation bets versus the government's "around 2%" target. Swing factors include March CPI data due early April, stimulus efficacy, and commodity trajectories.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourInflation annuelle en Chine 2026
Inflation annuelle en Chine 2026
2,5 %+ 19.2%
-0,4 – 0,0 % 14.7%
1,6 – 2,0 % 13.7%
<-1,0 % 12.3%
$30,081 Vol.
$30,081 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
<-1,0 %
19%
-0,9 – -0,5 %
3%
-0,4 – 0,0 %
15%
0,1 – 0,5 %
11%
0,6 – 1,0 %
11%
1,1 – 1,5 %
11%
1,6 – 2,0 %
14%
2,0–2,4 %
5%
2,5 %+
13%
2,5 %+ 19.2%
-0,4 – 0,0 % 14.7%
1,6 – 2,0 % 13.7%
<-1,0 % 12.3%
$30,081 Vol.
$30,081 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
<-1,0 %
$16,662 Vol.
19%
-0,9 – -0,5 %
$1,587 Vol.
3%
-0,4 – 0,0 %
$1,694 Vol.
15%
0,1 – 0,5 %
$1,515 Vol.
11%
0,6 – 1,0 %
$1,471 Vol.
11%
1,1 – 1,5 %
$1,879 Vol.
11%
1,6 – 2,0 %
$2,364 Vol.
14%
2,0–2,4 %
$1,468 Vol.
5%
2,5 %+
$1,441 Vol.
13%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented 19.2% implied probability for China annual CPI below -1.0% in 2026, closely trailed by mild deflation (-0.4% to 0.0% at 14.7%) and low positive bands around 13%, reflecting deep uncertainty over demand recovery amid structural headwinds. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 1.3% year-over-year—its highest in three years—fueled by Lunar New Year holiday spending and cost-push pressures from Mideast oil shocks pushing Brent above $100, prompting banks like Standard Chartered to lift full-year forecasts to 1.2%. Yet persistent producer price deflation (PPI -0.9%) signals overcapacity and weak consumption, offsetting reflation bets versus the government's "around 2%" target. Swing factors include March CPI data due early April, stimulus efficacy, and commodity trajectories.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$30,081Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented 19.2% implied probability for China annual CPI below -1.0% in 2026, closely trailed by mild deflation (-0.4% to 0.0% at 14.7%) and low positive bands around 13%, reflecting deep uncertainty over demand recovery amid structural headwinds. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 1.3% year-over-year—its highest in three years—fueled by Lunar New Year holiday spending and cost-push pressures from Mideast oil shocks pushing Brent above $100, prompting banks like Standard Chartered to lift full-year forecasts to 1.2%. Yet persistent producer price deflation (PPI -0.9%) signals overcapacity and weak consumption, offsetting reflation bets versus the government's "around 2%" target. Swing factors include March CPI data due early April, stimulus efficacy, and commodity trajectories.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$30,081Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented 19.2% implied probability for China annual CPI below -1.0% in 2026, closely trailed by mild deflation (-0.4% to 0.0% at 14.7%) and low positive bands around 13%, reflecting deep uncertainty over demand recovery amid structural headwinds. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 1.3% year-over-year—its highest in three years—fueled by Lunar New Year holiday spending and cost-push pressures from Mideast oil shocks pushing Brent above $100, prompting banks like Standard Chartered to lift full-year forecasts to 1.2%. Yet persistent producer price deflation (PPI -0.9%) signals overcapacity and weak consumption, offsetting reflation bets versus the government's "around 2%" target. Swing factors include March CPI data due early April, stimulus efficacy, and commodity trajectories.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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