The heavily Democratic composition of California’s 11th congressional district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly nine to one and recent presidential voting favored Democrats by more than 60 points, underpins trader consensus that the party will retain the open seat after Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. Analysts rate the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the incumbent’s 81 percent victory in 2024 and the district’s D+36 partisan voting index. Multiple Democratic candidates, including state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, are competing in the June 2, 2026 primary under California’s top-two system, while Republican contenders remain marginal. A late primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic nominee or an unforeseen national political shift could alter the outcome, though such scenarios have not yet materialized in polling or fundraising.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-11
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-11
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$3,127 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$701 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California’s 11th congressional district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly nine to one and recent presidential voting favored Democrats by more than 60 points, underpins trader consensus that the party will retain the open seat after Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. Analysts rate the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the incumbent’s 81 percent victory in 2024 and the district’s D+36 partisan voting index. Multiple Democratic candidates, including state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, are competing in the June 2, 2026 primary under California’s top-two system, while Republican contenders remain marginal. A late primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic nominee or an unforeseen national political shift could alter the outcome, though such scenarios have not yet materialized in polling or fundraising.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,828Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California’s 11th congressional district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly nine to one and recent presidential voting favored Democrats by more than 60 points, underpins trader consensus that the party will retain the open seat after Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. Analysts rate the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the incumbent’s 81 percent victory in 2024 and the district’s D+36 partisan voting index. Multiple Democratic candidates, including state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, are competing in the June 2, 2026 primary under California’s top-two system, while Republican contenders remain marginal. A late primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic nominee or an unforeseen national political shift could alter the outcome, though such scenarios have not yet materialized in polling or fundraising.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$3,828Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of California’s 11th congressional district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly nine to one and recent presidential voting favored Democrats by more than 60 points, underpins trader consensus that the party will retain the open seat after Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. Analysts rate the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the incumbent’s 81 percent victory in 2024 and the district’s D+36 partisan voting index. Multiple Democratic candidates, including state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, are competing in the June 2, 2026 primary under California’s top-two system, while Republican contenders remain marginal. A late primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic nominee or an unforeseen national political shift could alter the outcome, though such scenarios have not yet materialized in polling or fundraising.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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