Polymarket traders price a 65.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Canada's June 10 policy rate decision, reflecting the central bank's March 18 hold at 2.25%—its third consecutive pause after October 2025's final cut—and February 2026 CPI easing to 1.8% annually from 2.3%, with core measures stabilizing near 2%. Elevated 16% odds for a rate increase stem from persistent services inflation and rising producer prices, while 15% for a 25 basis point cut and 6.5% for larger easing signal caution amid subdued GDP growth projections around 1% for 2026 and softening employment. Key catalysts include April CPI data and the April 29 announcement, with trader consensus balancing disinflation against oil-driven upside risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 66%
Increase 16%
25 bps decrease 16%
50+ bps decrease 7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
7%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
66%
Increase
16%
No change 66%
Increase 16%
25 bps decrease 16%
50+ bps decrease 7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$115 Vol.
7%
25 bps decrease
$483 Vol.
16%
No change
$116 Vol.
66%
Increase
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 65.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Canada's June 10 policy rate decision, reflecting the central bank's March 18 hold at 2.25%—its third consecutive pause after October 2025's final cut—and February 2026 CPI easing to 1.8% annually from 2.3%, with core measures stabilizing near 2%. Elevated 16% odds for a rate increase stem from persistent services inflation and rising producer prices, while 15% for a 25 basis point cut and 6.5% for larger easing signal caution amid subdued GDP growth projections around 1% for 2026 and softening employment. Key catalysts include April CPI data and the April 29 announcement, with trader consensus balancing disinflation against oil-driven upside risks.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$714Date de fin
Jun 10, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 65.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Canada's June 10 policy rate decision, reflecting the central bank's March 18 hold at 2.25%—its third consecutive pause after October 2025's final cut—and February 2026 CPI easing to 1.8% annually from 2.3%, with core measures stabilizing near 2%. Elevated 16% odds for a rate increase stem from persistent services inflation and rising producer prices, while 15% for a 25 basis point cut and 6.5% for larger easing signal caution amid subdued GDP growth projections around 1% for 2026 and softening employment. Key catalysts include April CPI data and the April 29 announcement, with trader consensus balancing disinflation against oil-driven upside risks.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$714Date de fin
Jun 10, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 65.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Canada's June 10 policy rate decision, reflecting the central bank's March 18 hold at 2.25%—its third consecutive pause after October 2025's final cut—and February 2026 CPI easing to 1.8% annually from 2.3%, with core measures stabilizing near 2%. Elevated 16% odds for a rate increase stem from persistent services inflation and rising producer prices, while 15% for a 25 basis point cut and 6.5% for larger easing signal caution amid subdued GDP growth projections around 1% for 2026 and softening employment. Key catalysts include April CPI data and the April 29 announcement, with trader consensus balancing disinflation against oil-driven upside risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes