Trader consensus at 96.1% for "No" reflects the absence of any state legislative bills on secession advancing to a floor vote, reinforced by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) declaring unilateral secession unconstitutional without congressional consent. Fringe movements like Texit in Texas or Calexit in California emphasize rhetoric or ballot initiatives rather than legislative action, with no developments in the past 30 days—such as Texas House Speaker's March 26 directive to study New Mexico county transfers, not state independence—altering this dynamic. State sessions continue through mid-2026, but procedural hurdles, bipartisan opposition, and lack of momentum make a vote by June 30 improbable; only a profound national crisis could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa législature d'un État américain vote-t-elle la sécession d'ici le 30 juin 2026 ?
La législature d'un État américain vote-t-elle la sécession d'ici le 30 juin 2026 ?
Oui
$21,685 Vol.
$21,685 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$21,685 Vol.
$21,685 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus at 96.1% for "No" reflects the absence of any state legislative bills on secession advancing to a floor vote, reinforced by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) declaring unilateral secession unconstitutional without congressional consent. Fringe movements like Texit in Texas or Calexit in California emphasize rhetoric or ballot initiatives rather than legislative action, with no developments in the past 30 days—such as Texas House Speaker's March 26 directive to study New Mexico county transfers, not state independence—altering this dynamic. State sessions continue through mid-2026, but procedural hurdles, bipartisan opposition, and lack of momentum make a vote by June 30 improbable; only a profound national crisis could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$21,685Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus at 96.1% for "No" reflects the absence of any state legislative bills on secession advancing to a floor vote, reinforced by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) declaring unilateral secession unconstitutional without congressional consent. Fringe movements like Texit in Texas or Calexit in California emphasize rhetoric or ballot initiatives rather than legislative action, with no developments in the past 30 days—such as Texas House Speaker's March 26 directive to study New Mexico county transfers, not state independence—altering this dynamic. State sessions continue through mid-2026, but procedural hurdles, bipartisan opposition, and lack of momentum make a vote by June 30 improbable; only a profound national crisis could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,685Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 96.1% for "No" reflects the absence of any state legislative bills on secession advancing to a floor vote, reinforced by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) declaring unilateral secession unconstitutional without congressional consent. Fringe movements like Texit in Texas or Calexit in California emphasize rhetoric or ballot initiatives rather than legislative action, with no developments in the past 30 days—such as Texas House Speaker's March 26 directive to study New Mexico county transfers, not state independence—altering this dynamic. State sessions continue through mid-2026, but procedural hurdles, bipartisan opposition, and lack of momentum make a vote by June 30 improbable; only a profound national crisis could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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