Name: Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?
Start: 2025-01-18T19:52:53.841626Z
End: 2025-05-01T12:00:00Z

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Improved in-game view for sports markets.

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Enable updates from the sports websocket.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok iOS app is available for download on the US Apple App Store on May 1, 2025 12:00 PM ET (noon). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, it will still be considered available for download.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the Apple App Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use


Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?

In June 2020, TikTok was banned in India on national security grounds. A recent warming in relations between India and China have some speculating that the ban might be lifted in 2025. See more here: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tiktok-back-in-india-govt-responds-amid-buzz-over-chinese-app-bytedance-return-101755885334258.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Indian ban on TikTok is ordered to be lifted in full by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An order made before the resolution date that the ban be lifted will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the order goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Indian government and TikTok/ByteDance, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

India unbans TikTok by December 31?

The app Wizz has been described as 'Tinder for kids' due to its dating app-style left- and right-swipe features to match and meet with strangers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wizz iOS app is no longer available for download on the United States Apple App Store at any point between December 10, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, this will not count as a removal.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the Apple App Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


'Tinder for kids' removed from App Store?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if diVine, the short-form video app backed by Jack Dorsey, has a functional native iOS application publicly available for download in the U.S. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the app has to be functional, i.e., it must be publicly accessible, installable, and capable of performing its core short-form video functions (such as viewing, uploading, or interacting with videos) in a manner consistent with a normal early-stage launch. Minor bugs or limited features will not disqualify the app so long as core functionality is available to the public.

The application must be officially released by diVine or through official diVine communication channels.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from diVine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by xAI (or Elon Musk via official xAI/Grok communication channels).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line in 2025 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple. 

Will Apple release a new product line in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple.

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Perplexity AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Perplexity AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Perplexity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Perplexity in 2025?

Recent posts on X indicated that Meek Mill is looking for investors for an app. You can see more about that here: https://x.com/MeekMill/status/1962925141496598797

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meek Mill launches an app advertised as making use of Artificial Intelligence by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only an AI app which is confirmed to have been launched by or in affiliation with Meek Mill, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Meek Mill releases AI app in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between October 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Harry Styles release an album in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BTS (방탄소년단) releases any new music track credited to the group between June 3 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The track must be publicly released through major music platforms (e.g., Spotify, Apple Music, or YouTube) and must be announced via official BTS or BigHit Music channels. The release must include new musical content; re-releases, remasters, or compilations of previously released songs do not count unless they contain newly recorded material.

Tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than "BTS" as a group will not count toward resolution.

The resolution source will be any official BTS streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.


Will BTS release any tracks in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Snapchat by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Snapchat is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Snapchat and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Snapchat and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Snapchat acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new HomePod mini product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "HomePod mini" and be recognized as a successor to the original HomePod mini product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new HomePod mini product released without a number, under a designation other than HomePod mini 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the HomePod mini and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new HomePod mini product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "HomePod mini" and be recognized as a successor to the original HomePod mini product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new HomePod mini product released without a number, under a designation other than HomePod mini 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the HomePod mini and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tether insolvent in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces a partnership with either OpenAI or Anthropic to use their AI models (such as ChatGPT or Claude) for enhancing or powering Siri on Apple devices by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The partnership must directly address Siri or voice assistant integration. General AI partnerships unrelated to Siri or non-specific mentions will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce married
- Taylor Swift pregnant
- Taylor Swift mentions Travis Kelce on her new album

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/TS.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Meta Platforms, Inc. announces their intention to sell Instagram by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A public announcement of the intention to sell Instagram will qualify even if a sale has not been finalized. This includes any formal declaration made by Meta Platforms, Inc. or its authorized representatives regarding their plans to sell or transfer ownership of Instagram.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta Platforms, Inc. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Meta announce Instagram sale in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of the AirTag 2 launches at $29.99 or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of the AirTag 2 as listed on the official Apple Store website or Apple’s retail pricing in the United States on the first official day of its release.

If the price differs between configurations, this market will resolve according to the lower price of the version that includes the full standard AirTag 2 model with no additional features, accessories, or services.

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

If the AirTag 2 is not released by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Apple Store (online or retail pricing), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Apple (AAPL) close at $270–275 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robinhood offers tokenized versions of U.S.-listed equities to U.S.-based users for trading on its platform or an affiliated app it controls by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The tokenized equities must track the price of U.S. stocks such as those listed on the NYSE or Nasdaq. They may be structured as synthetic assets, wrapped instruments, or token representations of real equities, but do not need to confer voting rights or direct ownership.

To qualify, U.S.-based users must be able to buy or sell the tokenized equities during the market period. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Robinhood launch stock tokens in the US before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Cobie mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X relaunches Vine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Relaunching Vine" is defined as launching a platform and/or feature that performs similar functions to Vine, and is branded as a "relaunch of Vine" by Elon Musk or X itself. Note - the relaunch must be live and broadly accessible to the public before the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be the Vine platform, as well as official information from Elon Musk and X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?

Market Context

Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?

Rules

Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?

Market Context

Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?

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