Name: Will Pakistan reopen its airspace to India before May?
Start: 2025-04-24T19:06:30.020312Z
End: 2025-04-30T12:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan officially reopens its airspace to commercial flights by Indian carriers by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A partial reopening will only count if the selection of permitted Indian commercial air carriers constitutes a majority of Indian commercial air traffic.

Reopening must be confirmed by official announcements from India and Pakistan, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pakistan reopen its airspace to India before May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Pakistan between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of April 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by India, Pakistan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will India invade Pakistan in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of India between November 11 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of November 11, 2025, 11:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Pakistan, India, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pakistan invade India in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Indian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Indian territory (e.g., if a Pakistani missile or drone hits a target within India’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Indian territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Indian soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Pakistani ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pakistan strike on India by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by December 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pakistan strikes Kabul by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

In June 2020, TikTok was banned in India on national security grounds. A recent warming in relations between India and China have some speculating that the ban might be lifted in 2025. See more here: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tiktok-back-in-india-govt-responds-amid-buzz-over-chinese-app-bytedance-return-101755885334258.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Indian ban on TikTok is ordered to be lifted in full by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An order made before the resolution date that the ban be lifted will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the order goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Indian government and TikTok/ByteDance, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

India unbans TikTok by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the West Bank's soil between November 27, 2025, 3:00 AM IST and the listed date 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the Israeli military that impact the West Bank's ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the West Bank counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the West Bank's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Israeli military will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Afghanistan between June 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Afghanistan or the United States as of June 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if new underwater wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 370 is found by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of resolving this market, 'found' means that new underwater wreckage must be discovered between December 4, 2025 and June 30, 2026.

Wreckage that washed ashore/afloat and previous findings of wreckage will NOT qualify - only underwater wreckage will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

It is not necessary for the wreckage to be recovered, only that its location is definitively identified. If wreckage is located before the resolution date, but it unknown as to whether it came from MH370, this market may stay open until a consensus has been reached as to the wreckage's origin.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.

US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Afghan soil or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by United States military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by U.S. ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. strikes Afghanistan by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Air Force One aircraft is put into official service by the US Air Force between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Air Force One" refers to any aircraft built to replace one or both of the VC-25s presently used as the primary presidential aircrafts.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

New Air Force One in 2025?

On February 4, Donald Trump floated a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza including the relocation of Gaza’s population (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 500,000 Gazans leave the Gaza strip between February 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes the transfer of Gazans to Israel, the West Bank or other countries, as well as the departure of Gazans from the Gaza Strip through visa or refugee programs.

This market refers to the total number of Gazans who leave, regardless of method.  

Announcements of relocation plans will not count, only actual relocation will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

There are currently around 200 Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portion of Gaza, separated from the Hamas-controlled portion of Gaza by the “Yellow Line”. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kushner-israel-trapped-hamas-fighters-issue-bedevils-gaza-truce-progress-2025-11-10/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Israel allows 20 or more Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portions of Gaza to leave to areas not under Israeli control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

20 or more Hamas fighters being allowed to leave to Hamas-controlled portions of Gaza, third-party countries, or any other areas not under Israeli control will all qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Transfers to Israeli detention outside of Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count.

Escapes, rescues, or other methods of leaving Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count. 

The relevant Hamas fighters must be credibly reported to have been allowed to leave Israeli-controlled Gaza within this market’s timeframe. Announcements alone that the fighters will be allowed to leave will not qualify.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?

If Jia Yueting enters mainland China by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, "entering mainland China" is defined as Jia Yueting physically setting foot within the territory of the People’s Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

Travel through airspace or territorial waters during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Turkish soil or any Turkish embassy or consulate between September 9, 3 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Turkey's ground territory or any official Turkish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Turkish soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Turkish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Pakistan reopen its airspace to India before May?

Market Context

Will Pakistan reopen its airspace to India before May?

Rules

Will Pakistan reopen its airspace to India before May?

Market Context

Will Pakistan reopen its airspace to India before May?

About

Related