Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability for Clavicular becoming Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31st, driven primarily by the complete absence of any verifiable evidence that Clavicular is a real political figure, candidate, or even mentioned in credible Iranian media or succession discussions surrounding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's potential replacement. Official reports from sources like Reuters and state outlets highlight entrenched figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei or Assembly of Experts insiders as frontrunners, with no tabloid or rumor mill whispers of this obscure name. Cultural and geopolitical realities—rigid clerical vetting and opaque power transitions—further cement this certainty, as Polymarket odds reflect historical precedents of insider-only elevations. Realistic upsets are negligible: barring an unprecedented revelation like a codename unmasking or emergency decree, which lacks any precedent or buzz, the market remains locked.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?
$815,742 Vol.
$815,742 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$815,742 Vol.
$815,742 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Volume
$815,742End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$815,742End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability for Clavicular becoming Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31st, driven primarily by the complete absence of any verifiable evidence that Clavicular is a real political figure, candidate, or even mentioned in credible Iranian media or succession discussions surrounding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's potential replacement. Official reports from sources like Reuters and state outlets highlight entrenched figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei or Assembly of Experts insiders as frontrunners, with no tabloid or rumor mill whispers of this obscure name. Cultural and geopolitical realities—rigid clerical vetting and opaque power transitions—further cement this certainty, as Polymarket odds reflect historical precedents of insider-only elevations. Realistic upsets are negligible: barring an unprecedented revelation like a codename unmasking or emergency decree, which lacks any precedent or buzz, the market remains locked.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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