**No holds a 61% market-implied probability** because the market resolves Yes only if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce marry, Tom Holland and Zendaya marry, and Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner get engaged—all by December 31, 2026. Swift and Kelce’s 2025 engagement and reported summer wedding plans give that leg the strongest momentum, yet Zendaya’s packed film schedule has slowed Holland-Zendaya wedding preparations following their late-2024 engagement. Chalamet and Jenner, together since 2023, show no confirmed engagement signals, making that condition the clearest risk. Traders see the requirement for all three milestones as the dominant barrier, with any single shortfall triggering a No resolution before year-end.