**Yes trades at 55.5% because two of the three required milestones have already cleared while the third remains plausible before year-end.** Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce married in a high-profile July 3 ceremony at Madison Square Garden, satisfying the first condition. Tom Holland’s June comments, plus stylist remarks and private reception reports, indicate he and Zendaya have also wed, clearing the second. The market now turns on whether Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce an engagement by December 31. The couple, together since 2023, continues making joint public appearances and receiving positive industry coverage, yet multiple August–September reports emphasize they are “not rushing” and remain content with the current pace. With roughly three months left and no major reported friction, traders assign roughly even odds to a late-2026 engagement announcement materializing.