**No holds a 64% market-implied probability because the market resolves to Yes only if all three celebrity milestones occur by December 31, 2026: Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce marrying, Tom Holland and Zendaya marrying, and Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner getting engaged.** Swift and Kelce’s July 2026 wedding at Madison Square Garden and Holland and Zendaya’s confirmed earlier private ceremony have already satisfied two conditions, shifting focus to the remaining requirement. Recent reports indicate Chalamet and Jenner, together since 2023, remain in a strong relationship but have no plans to rush an engagement, with sources emphasizing they prefer letting things progress naturally. With just three months left in the year and no public signals of an imminent proposal, traders view the all-in trifecta as unlikely, though any surprise announcement could quickly shift sentiment.