Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for most countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, amid sparse official announcements and limited diplomatic momentum. The Board, an emerging international forum aimed at conflict mediation, has secured commitments from founding members like [hypothetical], but recent developments show no confirmed new entrants, with speculation centering on neutral states such as Switzerland or Indonesia based on their peace advocacy records. Primary drivers include stalled UN General Assembly discussions and bilateral talks reported in early March, while upcoming events like a potential April summit could shift odds if invitations are extended. Uncertainty persists due to geopolitical tensions, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing such fluid outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,886,160 Vol.
India
3%
Russia
3%
Brazil
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
U.K.
2%
Italy
2%
Belgium
1%
Germany
1%
Sweden
1%
Norway
1%
France
1%
Finland
1%
Spain
1%
Denmark
1%
Switzerland
1%
China
1%
Netherlands
<1%
$1,886,160 Vol.
India
3%
Russia
3%
Brazil
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
U.K.
2%
Italy
2%
Belgium
1%
Germany
1%
Sweden
1%
Norway
1%
France
1%
Finland
1%
Spain
1%
Denmark
1%
Switzerland
1%
China
1%
Netherlands
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for most countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, amid sparse official announcements and limited diplomatic momentum. The Board, an emerging international forum aimed at conflict mediation, has secured commitments from founding members like [hypothetical], but recent developments show no confirmed new entrants, with speculation centering on neutral states such as Switzerland or Indonesia based on their peace advocacy records. Primary drivers include stalled UN General Assembly discussions and bilateral talks reported in early March, while upcoming events like a potential April summit could shift odds if invitations are extended. Uncertainty persists due to geopolitical tensions, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing such fluid outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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