Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on recent diplomatic overtures from key nations, with implied probabilities favoring Saudi Arabia and UAE as frontrunners based on their public commitments to regional stability initiatives. Official statements from the initiative's founders highlight invitations extended to G20 members, but no formal accessions have been confirmed, leaving room for last-minute shifts. Recent UN General Assembly discussions and bilateral talks in Riyadh have boosted odds for Middle Eastern states, while European and Asian powers remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions. Traders watch for announcements before the deadline, as any surprise endorsements or withdrawals could swing markets; historical precedents in similar alliances show 60% of pledges materialize within timelines. Uncertainty persists given the voluntary nature of participation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,837,518 Vol.
India
3%
Russia
3%
Brazil
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
U.K.
2%
Italy
2%
Belgium
1%
Germany
1%
Sweden
1%
France
1%
Norway
1%
Finland
1%
Spain
1%
Denmark
1%
Switzerland
1%
China
1%
Netherlands
<1%
$1,837,518 Vol.
India
3%
Russia
3%
Brazil
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
U.K.
2%
Italy
2%
Belgium
1%
Germany
1%
Sweden
1%
France
1%
Norway
1%
Finland
1%
Spain
1%
Denmark
1%
Switzerland
1%
China
1%
Netherlands
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on recent diplomatic overtures from key nations, with implied probabilities favoring Saudi Arabia and UAE as frontrunners based on their public commitments to regional stability initiatives. Official statements from the initiative's founders highlight invitations extended to G20 members, but no formal accessions have been confirmed, leaving room for last-minute shifts. Recent UN General Assembly discussions and bilateral talks in Riyadh have boosted odds for Middle Eastern states, while European and Asian powers remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions. Traders watch for announcements before the deadline, as any surprise endorsements or withdrawals could swing markets; historical precedents in similar alliances show 60% of pledges materialize within timelines. Uncertainty persists given the voluntary nature of participation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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