Trader sentiment on countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 reflects low probabilities for major powers, driven by stalled diplomatic talks and geopolitical tensions amid ongoing global conflicts like Ukraine and the Middle East. No official announcements have confirmed new members since the board's formation last year, with primary sources showing only exploratory discussions involving neutral states such as Switzerland and Oman. Recent UN General Assembly debates highlighted divisions, reducing odds for Russia, China, or US involvement. Upcoming events include a potential February summit in Geneva, which could shift consensus if breakthroughs occur, though historical base rates for such boards suggest delays beyond deadlines. Markets imply trader caution on rapid accessions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,827,900 Vol.
Russia
2%
India
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
U.K.
2%
Italy
2%
Belgium
1%
Brazil
1%
Germany
1%
Sweden
1%
Norway
1%
France
1%
Finland
1%
Spain
1%
Denmark
1%
Switzerland
1%
Netherlands
1%
China
1%
$1,827,900 Vol.
Russia
2%
India
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
U.K.
2%
Italy
2%
Belgium
1%
Brazil
1%
Germany
1%
Sweden
1%
Norway
1%
France
1%
Finland
1%
Spain
1%
Denmark
1%
Switzerland
1%
Netherlands
1%
China
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 20, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 reflects low probabilities for major powers, driven by stalled diplomatic talks and geopolitical tensions amid ongoing global conflicts like Ukraine and the Middle East. No official announcements have confirmed new members since the board's formation last year, with primary sources showing only exploratory discussions involving neutral states such as Switzerland and Oman. Recent UN General Assembly debates highlighted divisions, reducing odds for Russia, China, or US involvement. Upcoming events include a potential February summit in Geneva, which could shift consensus if breakthroughs occur, though historical base rates for such boards suggest delays beyond deadlines. Markets imply trader caution on rapid accessions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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