Trader consensus on Polymarket hinges on Donald Trump's predictable Truth Social posting patterns, dominated by criticisms of Joe Biden, defenses against legal cases, and election-related claims, as seen in over 90% of his recent weekly outputs. Recent catalysts include the March 12 Florida primary win boosting campaign boasts and ongoing appeals in the New York civil fraud case, heightening "witch hunt" rhetoric odds. With no major rallies scheduled for March 16-22 but congressional Ukraine aid debates unfolding, traders weigh elevated probabilities for border security or foreign policy jabs. Historical data shows 70%+ alignment with current political flashpoints, underscoring crowd wisdom amid fluid developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$82,169 Vol.
Ass
4%
Lawsuit
27%
Illinois
12%
Epic Fury
28%
Oscar / Oscars
11%
Hillary / Clinton
7%
SOTU / State of the Union / State of Our Union
2%
IRGC / Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
31%
Filibuster
35%
Stupid
40%
Death to America
8%
Claude / Anthropic
3%
Hamas / Hezbollah
11%
Too Big to Rig
24%
Democrat Shutdown
55%
Mamdani
8%
Texas
13%
Son
12%
Cornyn
5%
Jake Paul
2%
$82,169 Vol.
Ass
4%
Lawsuit
27%
Illinois
12%
Epic Fury
28%
Oscar / Oscars
11%
Hillary / Clinton
7%
SOTU / State of the Union / State of Our Union
2%
IRGC / Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
31%
Filibuster
35%
Stupid
40%
Death to America
8%
Claude / Anthropic
3%
Hamas / Hezbollah
11%
Too Big to Rig
24%
Democrat Shutdown
55%
Mamdani
8%
Texas
13%
Son
12%
Cornyn
5%
Jake Paul
2%
For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.
Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)
Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.
Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump
Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Note: "Mutilization" must be written verbatim in order to qualify, any additional riffs on spelling or grammatical variations will not be considered, nor will the proper word "Mutilation". Differences in capitalization will qualify.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket hinges on Donald Trump's predictable Truth Social posting patterns, dominated by criticisms of Joe Biden, defenses against legal cases, and election-related claims, as seen in over 90% of his recent weekly outputs. Recent catalysts include the March 12 Florida primary win boosting campaign boasts and ongoing appeals in the New York civil fraud case, heightening "witch hunt" rhetoric odds. With no major rallies scheduled for March 16-22 but congressional Ukraine aid debates unfolding, traders weigh elevated probabilities for border security or foreign policy jabs. Historical data shows 70%+ alignment with current political flashpoints, underscoring crowd wisdom amid fluid developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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