Delcy Rodríguez's position as interim president since the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, drives her 64.5% implied probability, bolstered by recent military reshuffles including the dismissal of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and top commanders on March 18-20, signaling consolidation of Chavista control amid U.S. diplomatic engagement and oil sector stabilization efforts. Maduro's 17.1% reflects slim prospects of return amid his detention and arraignment, while opposition leader María Corina Machado's 13.5% captures hopes for a democratic transition despite National Assembly statements ruling out near-term presidential elections. Traders price continuity under Rodríguez's leadership through year-end, with U.S.-backed reforms and no-confidence risks as key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez 65%
Nicolás Maduro 17.1%
María Corina Machado 14%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón <1%
$78,271,346 Vol.
$78,271,346 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
65%
Nicolás Maduro
17%
María Corina Machado
14%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
No Head of State
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 65%
Nicolás Maduro 17.1%
María Corina Machado 14%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón <1%
$78,271,346 Vol.
$78,271,346 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,255,836 Vol.
65%
Nicolás Maduro
$887,017 Vol.
17%
María Corina Machado
$858,689 Vol.
14%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,260,556 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$451,900 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$687,498 Vol.
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$448,695 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$741,017 Vol.
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$863,929 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,060,594 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$652,920 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$24,634,283 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$30,633,335 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,145,230 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$2,747,396 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$1,967,274 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Delcy Rodríguez's position as interim president since the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, drives her 64.5% implied probability, bolstered by recent military reshuffles including the dismissal of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and top commanders on March 18-20, signaling consolidation of Chavista control amid U.S. diplomatic engagement and oil sector stabilization efforts. Maduro's 17.1% reflects slim prospects of return amid his detention and arraignment, while opposition leader María Corina Machado's 13.5% captures hopes for a democratic transition despite National Assembly statements ruling out near-term presidential elections. Traders price continuity under Rodríguez's leadership through year-end, with U.S.-backed reforms and no-confidence risks as key variables.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$78,271,346End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Delcy Rodríguez's position as interim president since the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, drives her 64.5% implied probability, bolstered by recent military reshuffles including the dismissal of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and top commanders on March 18-20, signaling consolidation of Chavista control amid U.S. diplomatic engagement and oil sector stabilization efforts. Maduro's 17.1% reflects slim prospects of return amid his detention and arraignment, while opposition leader María Corina Machado's 13.5% captures hopes for a democratic transition despite National Assembly statements ruling out near-term presidential elections. Traders price continuity under Rodríguez's leadership through year-end, with U.S.-backed reforms and no-confidence risks as key variables.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$78,271,346End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Delcy Rodríguez's position as interim president since the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, drives her 64.5% implied probability, bolstered by recent military reshuffles including the dismissal of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and top commanders on March 18-20, signaling consolidation of Chavista control amid U.S. diplomatic engagement and oil sector stabilization efforts. Maduro's 17.1% reflects slim prospects of return amid his detention and arraignment, while opposition leader María Corina Machado's 13.5% captures hopes for a democratic transition despite National Assembly statements ruling out near-term presidential elections. Traders price continuity under Rodríguez's leadership through year-end, with U.S.-backed reforms and no-confidence risks as key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions