Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

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Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?

99% chance

$766,421 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. will sell F-35 fighter jets to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only official policy announcements will qualify.

Informal statements, preliminary discussions, expressions of intent without a finalized agreement, announcements contingent on future conditions, or partial policy changes (e.g., resuming talks without committing to a sale) will not be considered sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration; however, a consensus from credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$766,421
End Date
Nov 30, 2025
Created At
Nov 13, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. will sell F-35 fighter jets to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only official policy announcements will qualify. Informal statements, preliminary discussions, expressions of intent without a finalized agreement, announcements contingent on future conditions, or partial policy changes (e.g., resuming talks without committing to a sale) will not be considered sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration; however, a consensus from credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?

99% chance

$766,421 Vol.

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. will sell F-35 fighter jets to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only official policy announcements will qualify.

Informal statements, preliminary discussions, expressions of intent without a finalized agreement, announcements contingent on future conditions, or partial policy changes (e.g., resuming talks without committing to a sale) will not be considered sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration; however, a consensus from credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$766,421
End Date
Nov 30, 2025
Created At
Nov 13, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. will sell F-35 fighter jets to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only official policy announcements will qualify. Informal statements, preliminary discussions, expressions of intent without a finalized agreement, announcements contingent on future conditions, or partial policy changes (e.g., resuming talks without committing to a sale) will not be considered sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration; however, a consensus from credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.