Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Project Hail Mary" second-weekend box office in the 46-50 million range at 54% implied probability, driven by strong pre-release tracking estimates signaling a potential 60m+ opening for the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation from directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. This positioning draws from the film's high presale interest, Gosling's post-"Barbie" momentum, and comps to tentpoles like "Dune" that held well into weekend two amid lighter competition. No major developments have emerged in the past week—production wrapped over the summer with no new trailer or reviews yet—but upcoming marketing pushes could shift holds. Lower ranges reflect risks from front-loaded audiences or family counterprogramming, while anything over 54m would require exceptional word-of-mouth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated"Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office
46-50m 54%
42-46m 22%
50-54m 20%
<42m 9%
NEW
NEW
Mar 30, 2026
<42m
9%
42-46m
22%
46-50m
54%
50-54m
20%
>54m
8%
46-50m 54%
42-46m 22%
50-54m 20%
<42m 9%
NEW
NEW
Mar 30, 2026
<42m
$167 Vol.
9%
42-46m
$3,976 Vol.
22%
46-50m
$3,290 Vol.
54%
50-54m
$570 Vol.
20%
>54m
$940 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Project Hail Mary" second-weekend box office in the 46-50 million range at 54% implied probability, driven by strong pre-release tracking estimates signaling a potential 60m+ opening for the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation from directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. This positioning draws from the film's high presale interest, Gosling's post-"Barbie" momentum, and comps to tentpoles like "Dune" that held well into weekend two amid lighter competition. No major developments have emerged in the past week—production wrapped over the summer with no new trailer or reviews yet—but upcoming marketing pushes could shift holds. Lower ranges reflect risks from front-loaded audiences or family counterprogramming, while anything over 54m would require exceptional word-of-mouth.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$8,942End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Project Hail Mary" second-weekend box office in the 46-50 million range at 54% implied probability, driven by strong pre-release tracking estimates signaling a potential 60m+ opening for the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation from directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. This positioning draws from the film's high presale interest, Gosling's post-"Barbie" momentum, and comps to tentpoles like "Dune" that held well into weekend two amid lighter competition. No major developments have emerged in the past week—production wrapped over the summer with no new trailer or reviews yet—but upcoming marketing pushes could shift holds. Lower ranges reflect risks from front-loaded audiences or family counterprogramming, while anything over 54m would require exceptional word-of-mouth.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$8,942End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Project Hail Mary" second-weekend box office in the 46-50 million range at 54% implied probability, driven by strong pre-release tracking estimates signaling a potential 60m+ opening for the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation from directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. This positioning draws from the film's high presale interest, Gosling's post-"Barbie" momentum, and comps to tentpoles like "Dune" that held well into weekend two amid lighter competition. No major developments have emerged in the past week—production wrapped over the summer with no new trailer or reviews yet—but upcoming marketing pushes could shift holds. Lower ranges reflect risks from front-loaded audiences or family counterprogramming, while anything over 54m would require exceptional word-of-mouth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions