OpenAI’s cautious approach to formal AGI declarations underpins the 87.5% market-implied odds against an announcement before 2027. Despite GPT-6 Astra’s September 2026 launch and President Greg Brockman’s “welcome to the AGI era” remarks, CEO Sam Altman has framed progress as internal and partial, citing the company’s definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. Recent October releases of hundreds of AI-generated math papers from unreleased models demonstrate advanced reasoning, yet the ARC Prize Foundation and others note these fall short of consensus AGI benchmarks. Safety reviews, alignment pauses on follow-on releases, and emphasis on verifiable criteria continue to temper any near-term public claim, leaving traders focused on the absence of an explicit announcement amid ongoing capability gains.