**Morena holds a structural edge in Oaxaca's state congress race as the dominant force with strong recent electoral results and control of the governorship, yet trader prices reflect a tight contest with PAN at 44% and Morena at 41.5%, alongside lower probabilities for PVEM, PT, PRI, and MC.** Early candidate registrations by Morena, differentiated alliance talks with PVEM for local seats and PT considerations for federal districts, and the formal start of the IEEPCO-organized process for the June 2027 vote have kept the field competitive. The concurrent federal deputy elections and multi-party field of 11 contenders add uncertainty, while historical Morena strength in the state is balanced against opposition efforts to consolidate. No decisive late shifts have emerged to separate the leaders ahead of the June 2027 balloting.