Trader consensus strongly backs under 3.0 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 (97.8% implied probability), reflecting subdued recent checkpoint throughput amid spring break hype and government shutdown strains on staffing. Daily volumes stayed below 2.8 million last week—March 30 at 2.53 million (Monday), March 27 Friday at 2.74 million—despite projections for 2.8 million daily averages through April, hampered by 9-12% year-over-year declines and holiday disruptions. As Good Friday before Easter Sunday (April 5), family travel could nudge numbers higher, aligning with historical April Friday peaks around 2.7 million. A realistic upset to 3.0 million-plus would demand an explosive late surge from weather clears or pent-up demand, but capacity limits make it improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated<3.0M 97.8%
3.0M-3.2M 1.3%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
>3.8M <1%
<3.0M
98%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
<3.0M 97.8%
3.0M-3.2M 1.3%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
>3.8M <1%
<3.0M
98%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly backs under 3.0 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 (97.8% implied probability), reflecting subdued recent checkpoint throughput amid spring break hype and government shutdown strains on staffing. Daily volumes stayed below 2.8 million last week—March 30 at 2.53 million (Monday), March 27 Friday at 2.74 million—despite projections for 2.8 million daily averages through April, hampered by 9-12% year-over-year declines and holiday disruptions. As Good Friday before Easter Sunday (April 5), family travel could nudge numbers higher, aligning with historical April Friday peaks around 2.7 million. A realistic upset to 3.0 million-plus would demand an explosive late surge from weather clears or pent-up demand, but capacity limits make it improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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