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Politics·Magyar

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Market icon
Politics·Magyar

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

25% chance
Polymarket
NEW
25% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent polls show Péter Magyar's Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz to 19–23 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, with Medián's March survey projecting Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz at 35%, yet traders imply only a 26% chance of Tisza securing a constitutional majority of 133 seats in the 199-seat parliament. Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 gerrymandered single-member districts favoring Fidesz's rural base plus 93 proportional list seats—combined with 20–25% undecided voters and conflicting pro-government polls make the supermajority threshold unlikely despite Tisza's momentum from large March rallies and anti-corruption messaging. Final turnout and mobilization will be decisive.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volume
$6,386
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent polls show Péter Magyar's Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz to 19–23 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, with Medián's March survey projecting Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz at 35%, yet traders imply only a 26% chance of Tisza securing a constitutional majority of 133 seats in the 199-seat parliament. Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 gerrymandered single-member districts favoring Fidesz's rural base plus 93 proportional list seats—combined with 20–25% undecided voters and conflicting pro-government polls make the supermajority threshold unlikely despite Tisza's momentum from large March rallies and anti-corruption messaging. Final turnout and mobilization will be decisive.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volume
$6,386
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Related

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Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?

75%
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Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

25%
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Will TISZA win 46-50% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

28%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 25% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 25¢, the market collectively assigns a 25% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?" is 25% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 25% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.