How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2025?
$556,754 Vol.
4-6 99.3%
13-15 <1%
7-9 <1%
10-12 <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
4-6
$112,037 Vol.
99%
4-6
$112,037 Vol.
99%
7-9
$188,172 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$188,172 Vol.
<1%
10-12
$53,785 Vol.
<1%
10-12
$53,785 Vol.
<1%
13-15
$42,559 Vol.
<1%
13-15
$42,559 Vol.
<1%
16-18
$26,620 Vol.
<1%
16-18
$26,620 Vol.
<1%
19-21
$25,095 Vol.
<1%
19-21
$25,095 Vol.
<1%
22-24
$27,225 Vol.
<1%
22-24
$27,225 Vol.
<1%
25+
$30,813 Vol.
<1%
25+
$30,813 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 4 (inclusive) and 6 (inclusive) SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Created At: Jan 1, 2025, 3:59 PM UTC
Volume
$556,754End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Jan 1, 2025, 3:59 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$556,754 Vol.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2025?
4-6 99.3%
13-15 <1%
7-9 <1%
10-12 <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
4-6
$112,037 Vol.
99%
7-9
$188,172 Vol.
<1%
10-12
$53,785 Vol.
<1%
13-15
$42,559 Vol.
<1%
16-18
$26,620 Vol.
<1%
19-21
$25,095 Vol.
<1%
22-24
$27,225 Vol.
<1%
25+
$30,813 Vol.
<1%
About
Volume
$556,754End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Jan 1, 2025, 3:59 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.