Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that erupted February 28, 2026, Iran has imposed severe restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits, channeling approved vessels through a narrow, IRGC-controlled tolled corridor hugging its coastline, slashing daily traffic from a historical average of over 100 ships to 3-4 recently. Trader consensus favors 20-24 transits for March 23-29 (36%), aligning with data showing 16 vessels since March 20 and just seven commercial ships on March 25-26, per Lloyd's List Intelligence. The slight uptick follows the IRGC's recent toll system rollout, though escalation risks, diplomatic signals, or military actions could further constrain flows before week's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)
20-24 36%
30-34 20%
25-29 19%
15-19 7%
NEW
$19,149 Vol.
NEW
$19,149 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
<10
2%
10-14
2%
15-19
7%
20-24
36%
25-29
19%
30-34
20%
35-39
7%
40-44
7%
45+
7%
20-24 36%
30-34 20%
25-29 19%
15-19 7%
NEW
$19,149 Vol.
NEW
$19,149 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
<10
$2,869 Vol.
2%
10-14
$2,796 Vol.
2%
15-19
$1,922 Vol.
7%
20-24
$2,938 Vol.
36%
25-29
$1,393 Vol.
19%
30-34
$1,620 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,483 Vol.
7%
40-44
$1,404 Vol.
7%
45+
$2,723 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that erupted February 28, 2026, Iran has imposed severe restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits, channeling approved vessels through a narrow, IRGC-controlled tolled corridor hugging its coastline, slashing daily traffic from a historical average of over 100 ships to 3-4 recently. Trader consensus favors 20-24 transits for March 23-29 (36%), aligning with data showing 16 vessels since March 20 and just seven commercial ships on March 25-26, per Lloyd's List Intelligence. The slight uptick follows the IRGC's recent toll system rollout, though escalation risks, diplomatic signals, or military actions could further constrain flows before week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$19,149End Date
Mar 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that erupted February 28, 2026, Iran has imposed severe restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits, channeling approved vessels through a narrow, IRGC-controlled tolled corridor hugging its coastline, slashing daily traffic from a historical average of over 100 ships to 3-4 recently. Trader consensus favors 20-24 transits for March 23-29 (36%), aligning with data showing 16 vessels since March 20 and just seven commercial ships on March 25-26, per Lloyd's List Intelligence. The slight uptick follows the IRGC's recent toll system rollout, though escalation risks, diplomatic signals, or military actions could further constrain flows before week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$19,149End Date
Mar 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that erupted February 28, 2026, Iran has imposed severe restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits, channeling approved vessels through a narrow, IRGC-controlled tolled corridor hugging its coastline, slashing daily traffic from a historical average of over 100 ships to 3-4 recently. Trader consensus favors 20-24 transits for March 23-29 (36%), aligning with data showing 16 vessels since March 20 and just seven commercial ships on March 25-26, per Lloyd's List Intelligence. The slight uptick follows the IRGC's recent toll system rollout, though escalation risks, diplomatic signals, or military actions could further constrain flows before week's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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