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Geopolitics·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Market icon
Geopolitics·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

15-19 59.0%

20-24 36.6%

25-29 3.8%

30-34 <1%

Polymarket

$386,153 Vol.

15-19 59.0%

20-24 36.6%

25-29 3.8%

30-34 <1%

Polymarket

$386,153 Vol.

<10

$52,330 Vol.

<1%

10-14

$35,440 Vol.

1%

15-19

$37,648 Vol.

59%

20-24

$35,931 Vol.

37%

25-29

$24,197 Vol.

4%

30-34

$21,953 Vol.

1%

35-39

$32,445 Vol.

<1%

40-44

$47,987 Vol.

1%

45+

$98,221 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (59%), reflecting a near-collapse in maritime traffic amid Iranian restrictions imposed since early March 2026, following attacks on commercial vessels and a de facto partial closure declared amid escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities. Recent maritime intelligence from Windward reported just 16 AIS-visible crossings over the prior seven days as of March 22, with only sporadic permission-based passages—mostly limited tankers and bulk carriers—continuing into late March at 4-7 vessels over two-day periods. Normal pre-crisis levels exceeded 100 daily transits, but war risks, trapped shipping, and selective Iranian approvals have sustained critically low volumes, positioning 20-24 (37%) as the next likely range while higher bins face steep barriers absent de-escalation. Final counts await verification from trackers like MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (59%), reflecting a near-collapse in maritime traffic amid Iranian restrictions imposed since early March 2026, following attacks on commercial vessels and a de facto partial closure declared amid escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities. Recent maritime intelligence from Windward reported just 16 AIS-visible crossings over the prior seven days as of March 22, with only sporadic permission-based passages—mostly limited tankers and bulk carriers—continuing into late March at 4-7 vessels over two-day periods. Normal pre-crisis levels exceeded 100 daily transits, but war risks, trapped shipping, and selective Iranian approvals have sustained critically low volumes, positioning 20-24 (37%) as the next likely range while higher bins face steep barriers absent de-escalation. Final counts await verification from trackers like MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (59%), reflecting a near-collapse in maritime traffic amid Iranian restrictions imposed since early March 2026, following attacks on commercial vessels and a de facto partial closure declared amid escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities. Recent maritime intelligence from Windward reported just 16 AIS-visible crossings over the prior seven days as of March 22, with only sporadic permission-based passages—mostly limited tankers and bulk carriers—continuing into late March at 4-7 vessels over two-day periods. Normal pre-crisis levels exceeded 100 daily transits, but war risks, trapped shipping, and selective Iranian approvals have sustained critically low volumes, positioning 20-24 (37%) as the next likely range while higher bins face steep barriers absent de-escalation. Final counts await verification from trackers like MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (59%), reflecting a near-collapse in maritime traffic amid Iranian restrictions imposed since early March 2026, following attacks on commercial vessels and a de facto partial closure declared amid escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities. Recent maritime intelligence from Windward reported just 16 AIS-visible crossings over the prior seven days as of March 22, with only sporadic permission-based passages—mostly limited tankers and bulk carriers—continuing into late March at 4-7 vessels over two-day periods. Normal pre-crisis levels exceeded 100 daily transits, but war risks, trapped shipping, and selective Iranian approvals have sustained critically low volumes, positioning 20-24 (37%) as the next likely range while higher bins face steep barriers absent de-escalation. Final counts await verification from trackers like MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15-19" at 59%, followed by "20-24" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" has generated $386.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" is "15-19" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20-24" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.