Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 25–27°C for Taipei on March 23, driven by Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecast of 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means. Midday observations show temperatures climbing to 24–25°C amid weakening winter monsoon influence, allowing solar heating to push peaks between 2–4 p.m. local time, but humid boundary layer and potential sea breeze advection could differentiate outcomes—capping at 25°C if clouds thicken or reaching 27°C with sustained insolation. Historical March averages hover at 24°C, yet this year's mild ridge amplifies warming risks, explaining the tight odds spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
26°C 34%
27°C 24%
25°C 23%
28°C 15%
22°C or below
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
29%
26°C
34%
27°C
31%
28°C
9%
29°C
7%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
2%
26°C 34%
27°C 24%
25°C 23%
28°C 15%
22°C or below
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
29%
26°C
34%
27°C
31%
28°C
9%
29°C
7%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 25–27°C for Taipei on March 23, driven by Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecast of 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means. Midday observations show temperatures climbing to 24–25°C amid weakening winter monsoon influence, allowing solar heating to push peaks between 2–4 p.m. local time, but humid boundary layer and potential sea breeze advection could differentiate outcomes—capping at 25°C if clouds thicken or reaching 27°C with sustained insolation. Historical March averages hover at 24°C, yet this year's mild ridge amplifies warming risks, explaining the tight odds spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions