Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?

Apr 2

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 2

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 5

26°C 27%

25°C 18%

24°C 17%

27°C 16%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C 27%

25°C 18%

24°C 17%

27°C 16%

Polymarket
NEW

19°C or below

$1,118 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$876 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$851 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$1,067 Vol.

2%

23°C

$442 Vol.

5%

24°C

$314 Vol.

17%

25°C

$330 Vol.

18%

26°C

$402 Vol.

27%

27°C

$292 Vol.

16%

28°C

$692 Vol.

13%

29°C or higher

$952 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration ensemble forecasts converge on a high temperature near 26°C for Shenzhen on April 4, anchoring trader sentiment with 27% implied probability on that outcome amid neck-and-neck competition from 25°C (20%) and 24°C (18%). Persistent southerly winds and high humidity fuel convective showers and cloud cover, capping solar insolation and differentiating lower outcomes, while brief clear intervals could push toward 27°C. Historical early-April highs average 25°C, but current subtropical ridge positioning supports mild above-normal warmth. Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty from precipitation timing persists; watch CMA's April 3 update and afternoon Bao'an International Airport observations for resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,338
End Date
Apr 4, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration ensemble forecasts converge on a high temperature near 26°C for Shenzhen on April 4, anchoring trader sentiment with 27% implied probability on that outcome amid neck-and-neck competition from 25°C (20%) and 24°C (18%). Persistent southerly winds and high humidity fuel convective showers and cloud cover, capping solar insolation and differentiating lower outcomes, while brief clear intervals could push toward 27°C. Historical early-April highs average 25°C, but current subtropical ridge positioning supports mild above-normal warmth. Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty from precipitation timing persists; watch CMA's April 3 update and afternoon Bao'an International Airport observations for resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,338
End Date
Apr 4, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C" at 27%, followed by "25°C" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?" is "26°C" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25°C" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.