Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts updated April 2, projecting Seoul-area highs near 14°C at Incheon International Airport station amid overcast skies, light showers, and 80% precipitation odds, closely matching the 21.5-22.5% implied probabilities for 14-15°C outcomes. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread across ECMWF and GFS models: persistent morning cloud decks and frontal moisture suppress daytime heating to 13-14°C, while faster rain clearance and southerly winds enabling partial afternoon sun could lift peaks to 16-17°C as priced at 19-20%. April 3's warmer 21°C high under clearer high-pressure conditions sets up this variability, with historical early-April averages at 13-15°C during cherry blossom season; final KMA briefing today may refine odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on April 4?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?
17°C or higher 24.1%
15°C 23%
14°C 22%
16°C 16%
$58,038 Vol.
$58,038 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
3%
12°C
3%
13°C
13%
14°C
22%
15°C
23%
16°C
16%
17°C or higher
24%
17°C or higher 24.1%
15°C 23%
14°C 22%
16°C 16%
$58,038 Vol.
$58,038 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
3%
12°C
3%
13°C
13%
14°C
22%
15°C
23%
16°C
16%
17°C or higher
24%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts updated April 2, projecting Seoul-area highs near 14°C at Incheon International Airport station amid overcast skies, light showers, and 80% precipitation odds, closely matching the 21.5-22.5% implied probabilities for 14-15°C outcomes. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread across ECMWF and GFS models: persistent morning cloud decks and frontal moisture suppress daytime heating to 13-14°C, while faster rain clearance and southerly winds enabling partial afternoon sun could lift peaks to 16-17°C as priced at 19-20%. April 3's warmer 21°C high under clearer high-pressure conditions sets up this variability, with historical early-April averages at 13-15°C during cherry blossom season; final KMA briefing today may refine odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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