Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 48-49°F in New York City on April 9, driven by official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station (KLGA), the market's designated reference point per Weather Underground data. Hourly readings confirmed a peak in this range amid persistent overcast skies, cool northerly winds, and a shallow marine layer that suppressed daytime heating, aligning with National Weather Service summaries showing no exceedance. This outcome falls below the April climatological average high of around 58°F at nearby Central Park, reflecting short-term synoptic patterns favoring chillier conditions. Realistic challenges are minimal post-observation—only a rare data revision by NOAA or NWS could alter resolution, though such corrections are exceedingly uncommon after preliminary CLI reports. Traders await final market settlement, typically within 24-48 hours of event close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 9?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 9?
48-49°F 100.0%
45°F or below <1%
46-47°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$259,696 Vol.
$259,696 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
45°F or below
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
Yes
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64°F or higher
No
48-49°F 100.0%
45°F or below <1%
46-47°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$259,696 Vol.
$259,696 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
45°F or below
$34,679 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$57,172 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$31,802 Vol.
Yes
50-51°F
$25,108 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$22,016 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$15,430 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$10,844 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$5,086 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$13,898 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$26,493 Vol.
No
64°F or higher
$17,169 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 48-49°F in New York City on April 9, driven by official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station (KLGA), the market's designated reference point per Weather Underground data. Hourly readings confirmed a peak in this range amid persistent overcast skies, cool northerly winds, and a shallow marine layer that suppressed daytime heating, aligning with National Weather Service summaries showing no exceedance. This outcome falls below the April climatological average high of around 58°F at nearby Central Park, reflecting short-term synoptic patterns favoring chillier conditions. Realistic challenges are minimal post-observation—only a rare data revision by NOAA or NWS could alter resolution, though such corrections are exceedingly uncommon after preliminary CLI reports. Traders await final market settlement, typically within 24-48 hours of event close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 5, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$259,696End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Apr 5, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 48-49°F in New York City on April 9, driven by official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station (KLGA), the market's designated reference point per Weather Underground data. Hourly readings confirmed a peak in this range amid persistent overcast skies, cool northerly winds, and a shallow marine layer that suppressed daytime heating, aligning with National Weather Service summaries showing no exceedance. This outcome falls below the April climatological average high of around 58°F at nearby Central Park, reflecting short-term synoptic patterns favoring chillier conditions. Realistic challenges are minimal post-observation—only a rare data revision by NOAA or NWS could alter resolution, though such corrections are exceedingly uncommon after preliminary CLI reports. Traders await final market settlement, typically within 24-48 hours of event close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$259,696End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Apr 5, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 48-49°F in New York City on April 9, driven by official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station (KLGA), the market's designated reference point per Weather Underground data. Hourly readings confirmed a peak in this range amid persistent overcast skies, cool northerly winds, and a shallow marine layer that suppressed daytime heating, aligning with National Weather Service summaries showing no exceedance. This outcome falls below the April climatological average high of around 58°F at nearby Central Park, reflecting short-term synoptic patterns favoring chillier conditions. Realistic challenges are minimal post-observation—only a rare data revision by NOAA or NWS could alter resolution, though such corrections are exceedingly uncommon after preliminary CLI reports. Traders await final market settlement, typically within 24-48 hours of event close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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