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Highest temperature in Houston on April 1?

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Highest temperature in Houston on April 1?

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

84-85°F 47%

82-83°F 29%

86-87°F 17%

90-91°F 14%

Polymarket
NEW

84-85°F 47%

82-83°F 29%

86-87°F 17%

90-91°F 14%

Polymarket
NEW

77°F or below

$74 Vol.

3%

78-79°F

$47 Vol.

10%

80-81°F

$16 Vol.

11%

82-83°F

$25 Vol.

29%

84-85°F

$128 Vol.

42%

86-87°F

$5 Vol.

17%

88-89°F

$22 Vol.

13%

90-91°F

$15 Vol.

14%

92-93°F

$221 Vol.

1%

94-95°F

$412 Vol.

1%

96°F or higher

$309 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 84-85°F as Houston's highest temperature on April 1, with 38.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service guidance showing highs in the low to mid-80s under a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence, clear skies, and light southerly winds advecting warm Gulf air. Late March observations of above-normal temperatures in the upper 70s—coupled with GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converging on 82-86°F peaks after upward revisions from cooler initial runs—have solidified this positioning against the early April climatological average of 78°F at Hobby Airport. Uncertainty persists in cloud cover timing and marine layer development, with tomorrow's 12z model updates and morning soundings poised to sharpen resolution criteria ahead of the event.

Trader consensus favors 84-85°F as Houston's highest temperature on April 1, with 38.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service guidance showing highs in the low to mid-80s under a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence, clear skies, and light southerly winds advecting warm Gulf air. Late March observations of above-normal temperatures in the upper 70s—coupled with GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converging on 82-86°F peaks after upward revisions from cooler initial runs—have solidified this positioning against the early April climatological average of 78°F at Hobby Airport. Uncertainty persists in cloud cover timing and marine layer development, with tomorrow's 12z model updates and morning soundings poised to sharpen resolution criteria ahead of the event.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 84-85°F as Houston's highest temperature on April 1, with 38.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service guidance showing highs in the low to mid-80s under a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence, clear skies, and light southerly winds advecting warm Gulf air. Late March observations of above-normal temperatures in the upper 70s—coupled with GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converging on 82-86°F peaks after upward revisions from cooler initial runs—have solidified this positioning against the early April climatological average of 78°F at Hobby Airport. Uncertainty persists in cloud cover timing and marine layer development, with tomorrow's 12z model updates and morning soundings poised to sharpen resolution criteria ahead of the event.

Trader consensus favors 84-85°F as Houston's highest temperature on April 1, with 38.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service guidance showing highs in the low to mid-80s under a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence, clear skies, and light southerly winds advecting warm Gulf air. Late March observations of above-normal temperatures in the upper 70s—coupled with GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converging on 82-86°F peaks after upward revisions from cooler initial runs—have solidified this positioning against the early April climatological average of 78°F at Hobby Airport. Uncertainty persists in cloud cover timing and marine layer development, with tomorrow's 12z model updates and morning soundings poised to sharpen resolution criteria ahead of the event.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Houston on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "84-85°F" at 42%, followed by "82-83°F" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Houston on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Houston on April 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Houston on April 1?" is "84-85°F" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "82-83°F" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Houston on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.