Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 86-91°F for Austin on March 24, with 88-89°F and 90-91°F each at 30% implied probability, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 89°F under a robust upper-level ridge amplifying subsidence and clear skies. NOAA's short-range guidance aligns closely, estimating 88-90°F amid persistent southerly winds and low soil moisture from ongoing drought conditions, which enhance daytime heating beyond the March climatological average of 76°F. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS slightly warmer at 91°F versus ECMWF's 88°F—and potential for isolated cumulus clouds capping extremes, keeping 92°F+ odds lower at 27.5% despite historical outliers in similar setups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
88-89°F 35%
90-91°F 30%
86-87°F 29%
84-85°F 28%
79°F or below
20%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
30%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
17%
98°F or higher
23%
88-89°F 35%
90-91°F 30%
86-87°F 29%
84-85°F 28%
79°F or below
20%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
30%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
17%
98°F or higher
23%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 86-91°F for Austin on March 24, with 88-89°F and 90-91°F each at 30% implied probability, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 89°F under a robust upper-level ridge amplifying subsidence and clear skies. NOAA's short-range guidance aligns closely, estimating 88-90°F amid persistent southerly winds and low soil moisture from ongoing drought conditions, which enhance daytime heating beyond the March climatological average of 76°F. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS slightly warmer at 91°F versus ECMWF's 88°F—and potential for isolated cumulus clouds capping extremes, keeping 92°F+ odds lower at 27.5% despite historical outliers in similar setups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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