Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 7°C in Ankara on March 20, driven by the latest forecasts from Turkey's Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs peaking at 6-8°C amid persistent cold northerly winds and cloudy skies. Historical March data for Ankara shows average highs near 12°C, but current synoptic patterns—a lingering low-pressure system over the Black Sea—align with verified observations of sub-10°C maxima in recent days, supporting this positioning with high confidence. Realistic challenges include an unexpected breakdown in the cold air mass or solar heating under clearing skies, potentially pushing temps to 9-10°C if short-range model updates diverge by midday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on March 20?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 20?
7°C 100.0%
2°C or below <1%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
$150,102 Vol.
$150,102 Vol.
2°C or below
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
Yes
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C or higher
No
7°C 100.0%
2°C or below <1%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
$150,102 Vol.
$150,102 Vol.
2°C or below
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
Yes
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 7°C in Ankara on March 20, driven by the latest forecasts from Turkey's Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs peaking at 6-8°C amid persistent cold northerly winds and cloudy skies. Historical March data for Ankara shows average highs near 12°C, but current synoptic patterns—a lingering low-pressure system over the Black Sea—align with verified observations of sub-10°C maxima in recent days, supporting this positioning with high confidence. Realistic challenges include an unexpected breakdown in the cold air mass or solar heating under clearing skies, potentially pushing temps to 9-10°C if short-range model updates diverge by midday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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