The April 25 New York appeals court overturn of Harvey Weinstein's 2020 rape conviction—citing prejudicial testimony—has fueled trader sentiment toward "No Prison Time" at 27.3%, reflecting uncertainty over an impending Manhattan retrial amid faded MeToo prosecutorial momentum. Closely trailing are 20-30 years (20.8%) and 10-20 years (18.4%), driven by his ongoing 16-year California rape sentence, which he's appealing while hospitalized for severe health issues including heart conditions at age 72. Competitive dynamics hinge on retrial scheduling later this year, potential plea bargains, compassionate release bids, and evidentiary hurdles post-overturn, with traders betting on Weinstein's age and legal attrition eroding longer terms like 30+ years (6.8%).
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHarvey Weinstein prison time?
Harvey Weinstein prison time?
No Prison Time 27.5%
20-30 years 20.8%
10-20 years 18.7%
<5 years 14.2%
$679,734 Vol.
$679,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
No Prison Time
28%
<5 years
14%
5-10 years
9%
10-20 years
19%
20-30 years
21%
30+ years
7%
No Prison Time 27.5%
20-30 years 20.8%
10-20 years 18.7%
<5 years 14.2%
$679,734 Vol.
$679,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
No Prison Time
$291,268 Vol.
28%
<5 years
$48,305 Vol.
14%
5-10 years
$34,414 Vol.
9%
10-20 years
$120,750 Vol.
19%
20-30 years
$150,833 Vol.
21%
30+ years
$34,164 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The April 25 New York appeals court overturn of Harvey Weinstein's 2020 rape conviction—citing prejudicial testimony—has fueled trader sentiment toward "No Prison Time" at 27.3%, reflecting uncertainty over an impending Manhattan retrial amid faded MeToo prosecutorial momentum. Closely trailing are 20-30 years (20.8%) and 10-20 years (18.4%), driven by his ongoing 16-year California rape sentence, which he's appealing while hospitalized for severe health issues including heart conditions at age 72. Competitive dynamics hinge on retrial scheduling later this year, potential plea bargains, compassionate release bids, and evidentiary hurdles post-overturn, with traders betting on Weinstein's age and legal attrition eroding longer terms like 30+ years (6.8%).
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$679,734End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The April 25 New York appeals court overturn of Harvey Weinstein's 2020 rape conviction—citing prejudicial testimony—has fueled trader sentiment toward "No Prison Time" at 27.3%, reflecting uncertainty over an impending Manhattan retrial amid faded MeToo prosecutorial momentum. Closely trailing are 20-30 years (20.8%) and 10-20 years (18.4%), driven by his ongoing 16-year California rape sentence, which he's appealing while hospitalized for severe health issues including heart conditions at age 72. Competitive dynamics hinge on retrial scheduling later this year, potential plea bargains, compassionate release bids, and evidentiary hurdles post-overturn, with traders betting on Weinstein's age and legal attrition eroding longer terms like 30+ years (6.8%).
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$679,734End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The April 25 New York appeals court overturn of Harvey Weinstein's 2020 rape conviction—citing prejudicial testimony—has fueled trader sentiment toward "No Prison Time" at 27.3%, reflecting uncertainty over an impending Manhattan retrial amid faded MeToo prosecutorial momentum. Closely trailing are 20-30 years (20.8%) and 10-20 years (18.4%), driven by his ongoing 16-year California rape sentence, which he's appealing while hospitalized for severe health issues including heart conditions at age 72. Competitive dynamics hinge on retrial scheduling later this year, potential plea bargains, compassionate release bids, and evidentiary hurdles post-overturn, with traders betting on Weinstein's age and legal attrition eroding longer terms like 30+ years (6.8%).
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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