March 20 22.4%
No release by March 31 25.1%
March 29 25%
March 6 23%
Released before February 15
$201 Vol.
10%
February 15
$1,209 Vol.
2%
February 16
$183 Vol.
24%
February 17
$176 Vol.
24%
February 18
$180 Vol.
24%
February 19
$176 Vol.
10%
February 20
$179 Vol.
21%
February 21
$176 Vol.
23%
February 22
$176 Vol.
6%
February 23
$176 Vol.
21%
February 24
$176 Vol.
15%
February 25
$179 Vol.
21%
February 26
$179 Vol.
21%
February 27
$176 Vol.
22%
February 28
$176 Vol.
21%
March 1
$179 Vol.
21%
March 2
$176 Vol.
5%
March 3
$179 Vol.
22%
March 4
$176 Vol.
12%
March 5
$176 Vol.
5%
March 6
$179 Vol.
23%
March 7
$179 Vol.
21%
March 8
$176 Vol.
14%
March 9
$180 Vol.
21%
March 10
$176 Vol.
5%
March 11
$181 Vol.
22%
March 12
$179 Vol.
22%
March 13
$180 Vol.
21%
March 14
$176 Vol.
22%
March 15
$180 Vol.
21%
March 16
$180 Vol.
22%
March 17
$176 Vol.
18%
March 18
$180 Vol.
23%
March 19
$180 Vol.
22%
March 20
$301 Vol.
22%
March 21
$176 Vol.
22%
March 22
$179 Vol.
21%
March 23
$179 Vol.
22%
March 24
$179 Vol.
23%
March 25
$179 Vol.
22%
March 26
$176 Vol.
22%
March 27
$176 Vol.
5%
March 28
$176 Vol.
22%
March 29
$180 Vol.
25%
March 30
$176 Vol.
5%
March 31
$176 Vol.
20%
No release by March 31
$355 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Released before February 15" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "No release by March 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Feb 9, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...March 20 22.4%
No release by March 31 25.1%
March 29 25%
March 6 23%
Released before February 15
10%
February 15
2%
February 16
24%
February 17
24%
February 18
24%
February 19
10%
February 20
21%
February 21
23%
February 22
6%
February 23
21%
February 24
15%
February 25
21%
February 26
21%
February 27
22%
February 28
21%
March 1
21%
March 2
5%
March 3
22%
March 4
12%
March 5
5%
March 6
23%
March 7
21%
March 8
14%
March 9
21%
March 10
5%
March 11
22%
March 12
22%
March 13
21%
March 14
22%
March 15
21%
March 16
22%
March 17
18%
March 18
23%
March 19
22%
March 20
22%
March 21
22%
March 22
21%
March 23
22%
March 24
23%
March 25
22%
March 26
22%
March 27
5%
March 28
22%
March 29
25%
March 30
5%
March 31
20%
No release by March 31
25%
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