Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 65-89 times (33.0% implied probability) or 90-114 times (29.5%) over April 4-6, closely tracking his verified average of 38 posts per day from March 27-April 3 (269 total, per X analytics trackers). This neck-and-neck dynamic reflects Elon's signature social media cadence—steady high-engagement bursts promoting Grok AI features like Imagine upgrades, interspersed with viral memes and replies—balanced against historical swings from 20 quiet days to 100+ peaks during Tesla announcements, SpaceX hype, or political firestorms. Absent confirmed weekend catalysts, traders eye potential lulls in his pop culture dominance versus surprise news driving outsized volume, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom on celebrity posting volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated65-89 30%
90-114 28%
40-64 20%
115-139 14%
NEW
$135,359 Vol.
NEW
$135,359 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<40
3%
40-64
20%
65-89
30%
90-114
28%
115-139
14%
140-164
3%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 30%
90-114 28%
40-64 20%
115-139 14%
NEW
$135,359 Vol.
NEW
$135,359 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<40
$10,096 Vol.
3%
40-64
$6,462 Vol.
20%
65-89
$2,339 Vol.
30%
90-114
$5,153 Vol.
28%
115-139
$5,398 Vol.
14%
140-164
$5,914 Vol.
3%
165-189
$11,577 Vol.
1%
190-214
$12,645 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$36,133 Vol.
<1%
240+
$39,656 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 4 12:00 PM ET to April 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 65-89 times (33.0% implied probability) or 90-114 times (29.5%) over April 4-6, closely tracking his verified average of 38 posts per day from March 27-April 3 (269 total, per X analytics trackers). This neck-and-neck dynamic reflects Elon's signature social media cadence—steady high-engagement bursts promoting Grok AI features like Imagine upgrades, interspersed with viral memes and replies—balanced against historical swings from 20 quiet days to 100+ peaks during Tesla announcements, SpaceX hype, or political firestorms. Absent confirmed weekend catalysts, traders eye potential lulls in his pop culture dominance versus surprise news driving outsized volume, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom on celebrity posting volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 4 12:00 PM ET to April 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ET
Volume
$135,359End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 4 12:00 PM ET to April 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 65-89 times (33.0% implied probability) or 90-114 times (29.5%) over April 4-6, closely tracking his verified average of 38 posts per day from March 27-April 3 (269 total, per X analytics trackers). This neck-and-neck dynamic reflects Elon's signature social media cadence—steady high-engagement bursts promoting Grok AI features like Imagine upgrades, interspersed with viral memes and replies—balanced against historical swings from 20 quiet days to 100+ peaks during Tesla announcements, SpaceX hype, or political firestorms. Absent confirmed weekend catalysts, traders eye potential lulls in his pop culture dominance versus surprise news driving outsized volume, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom on celebrity posting volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 4 12:00 PM ET to April 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$135,359End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 65-89 times (33.0% implied probability) or 90-114 times (29.5%) over April 4-6, closely tracking his verified average of 38 posts per day from March 27-April 3 (269 total, per X analytics trackers). This neck-and-neck dynamic reflects Elon's signature social media cadence—steady high-engagement bursts promoting Grok AI features like Imagine upgrades, interspersed with viral memes and replies—balanced against historical swings from 20 quiet days to 100+ peaks during Tesla announcements, SpaceX hype, or political firestorms. Absent confirmed weekend catalysts, traders eye potential lulls in his pop culture dominance versus surprise news driving outsized volume, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom on celebrity posting volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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