Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk posting 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026 (13.9% implied probability), with tight competition from neighboring bins like 1360-1399 and 1400-1439 (both 10.9%), highlighting uncertainty in his prolific X activity. This positioning extrapolates from Musk's recent monthly averages of 1200-1500 posts, driven by daily bursts of 40-50 tweets amid political commentary, Tesla announcements, and platform engagement following the 2024 U.S. election surge. Differentiating factors include potential volume spikes from viral controversies or xAI/SpaceX milestones versus moderation if Musk delegates more or focuses offline; traders eye early 2026 news cycles as pivotal swing drivers before April's 30-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1320-1359 13.8%
1400-1439 10.9%
1360-1399 10.9%
1480-1519 10.1%
$4,311,561 Vol.
$4,311,561 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
5%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
14%
1360-1399
11%
1400-1439
11%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
10%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
4%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1320-1359 13.8%
1400-1439 10.9%
1360-1399 10.9%
1480-1519 10.1%
$4,311,561 Vol.
$4,311,561 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
5%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
14%
1360-1399
11%
1400-1439
11%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
10%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
4%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk posting 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026 (13.9% implied probability), with tight competition from neighboring bins like 1360-1399 and 1400-1439 (both 10.9%), highlighting uncertainty in his prolific X activity. This positioning extrapolates from Musk's recent monthly averages of 1200-1500 posts, driven by daily bursts of 40-50 tweets amid political commentary, Tesla announcements, and platform engagement following the 2024 U.S. election surge. Differentiating factors include potential volume spikes from viral controversies or xAI/SpaceX milestones versus moderation if Musk delegates more or focuses offline; traders eye early 2026 news cycles as pivotal swing drivers before April's 30-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions