East coast port strike in January?
Yes
0% chance 14%
Source: Polymarket.com
Rules
On October 3, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) announced that it had reached a deal to suspend its three-day strike until Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate a new contract (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/port-strike-ends-tentative-deal-until-jan-15-dockworkers/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ILA or its leadership declares or announces a strike affecting any US East Coast or Gulf Coast port at any point in January 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the ILA announces a new deal which would avert any US East Coast or Gulf Coast port strike through January of 2025, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official announcements from the ILA however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ILA or its leadership declares or announces a strike affecting any US East Coast or Gulf Coast port at any point in January 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the ILA announces a new deal which would avert any US East Coast or Gulf Coast port strike through January of 2025, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official announcements from the ILA however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$159,748
End Date
Jan 15, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Comments (34)
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aj.simsky
2mo ago
I like how the picture for this market is Frank Sobotka from The Wire
Tchankinson
2mo ago
Get alittle
k.elementttt
2mo ago
There is just no way!
Trading4Fridge
3mo ago
https://www.msc.com/zh/newsroom/customer-advisories/2025/january/update-us-east-and-gulf-coast-port-strike-disruption
Trading4Fridge
3mo ago
https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2025/01/high-likelihood-of-another-east-gulf-coast-port-strike-this-month/
Eridpnc
3mo ago
Come back mars trump is getting inaugurated bro trust me I’ll insure you go buy N now
IUnderstandItNow
3mo ago
Huh?
Eridpnc
3mo ago
PoLOLitics
3mo ago
https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/12/maersk-no-progress-in-ila-usmx-talks/
M.Casado17
3mo ago
no my opinion
PoLOLitics
3mo ago
https://maritime-executive.com/article/carriers-grow-pessimistic-urging-preparations-for-u-s-port-strike
PoLOLitics
3mo ago
With the deadline looming for the expiration of the master contract for U.S. East and Gulf Coast dockworkers, carriers are beginning to sound cautions to customers. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM Group each issued customer advisories warning the situation is “dynamic” and with no signs of an agreement and the union saying they are at an impasse, the dangers are growing. The employers represented by the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association ended the October 2024 walkout by extending the contract deadline to January 15, 2025. This week marked four weeks till the end of the extension and the anticipated January 16 work stoppage. “The possibility of a strike increases each day that passes without a settled contract,” Maersk writes in a customer advisory released today, December 20.
endo2
3mo ago
https://ibb.co/wYmVWrd
MrManning
4mo ago
Tariffs are inevitable, leaving the Union with little leverage. A Republican president, likely anti-union, will be in office during a second term with no political constraints. This strike is unlikely to materialize.
YoungDolphGelato
3mo ago
Good prediction.
CamFantastic
4mo ago
the strike is definitely happening. it was only avoided in November because white house and DoL people were furiously negotiating behind the scenes to avoid a strike before the election, and Biden gave the unions a lot of latitude. Negotiations have stalled because USMX is refusing to put language in the new contract restricting new automated cranes, for obvious reasons. It's an absolutely key union demand, way more important than any pay rise, again for obvious reasons. And the Trump admin has neither the expertise nor the desire to get involved and smooth things over. It's happening, 100%
Wildish
3mo ago
source?
Itxking
4mo ago
Pls tip me 1 dollar
J.Madison
4mo ago
all they do is strike. i hope AI replaces them soon.
automobile
5mo ago
If you tip me 2$ ill give you double chocolate chunk cookie made purely out of love kiss kiss
Accounton
5mo ago
I can't believe it happened
Outcome: No