Name: What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?
Start: 2025-10-23T22:15:31.187381Z
End: 2025-10-29T21:00:00Z

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This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Coinbase currently scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025 at 5:00 PM EDT.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Margin

Crypto Winter

Prediction Market

SEC / Securities and Exchange Commission

Custodial / Custody

Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation

Institution / Institutional

Staking / Stake

Stablecoin

Shutdown / Shut Down

Subscription

Bitcoin

Web3

Trading Volume

Ethereum / ETH

International

Blockchain

Decentralized Exchange / DEX

What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Nike currently scheduled to take place on December 18, 2025 at 5:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Nike say "China" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of FedEx currently scheduled to take place on December 18, 2025 at 4:30 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will FedEx say "E-commerce / Ecommerce" during earnings call?

Brian Armstrong is scheduled to participate in Coinbase's product showcase on December 17, 2025 (https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/1990798715997810957).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong says the listed term during his appearance at the named event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Brian Armstrong's appearances at the "Product Showcase: Coinbase System Update 2025" event (https://investor.coinbase.com/events-and-presentations/events/event-details/2025/Product-Showcase-Coinbase-System-Update-2025-Cafj9fkLvm/default.aspx). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the specifically listed events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain Q&As, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or relevant footage is otherwise not aired by December 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Brian Armstrong say "Prediction Market" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?

Robinhood is scheduled to stream on December 16, 2025, 9PM ET. (https://x.com/robinhoodapp/status/1995559179822510267)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled stream. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such stream is aired by December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the Robinhood stream?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Sucked" in December?

The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://www.youtube.com/@allin)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "China" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 8, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Luck" this week? (December 8 - 14)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 15, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 15 - 21)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President participates in a Bill Signing Ceremony" in Washington on December 12, 2025, 3PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President participates in a Bill Signing Ceremony" on December 12, 2025, 3PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Border" during Bill Signing on December 12?

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by January 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and JD Vance is scheduled to speak on December 21 at 11:07AM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about JD Vance's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 21, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times at AmericaFest events on December 21?

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Keir Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and Steve Bannon is scheduled to speak on December 19 at 5:59PM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Steve Bannon says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where Steve Bannon is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where Steve Bannon is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Steve Bannon's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 19, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will Steve Bannon say "Trump" 10+ times at AmericaFest events on December 19?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and Tucker Carlson is scheduled to speak on December 18 at 7:15PM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where Tucker Carlson is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

This market is explicitly about Tucker Carlson's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 18, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will Tucker Carlson say "Christian" at AmericaFest events on December 18?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any perpetual futures product on Coinbase US offers more than 10x leverage by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Coinbase. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to confirm the offering.

Will Coinbase US perps offer more than 10x leverage?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the crypto token Hyperliquid ($HYPE) is listed for spot purchase on Coinbase by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only podcast released by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Coinbase 1 minute candles for USDT-USD for any 24 hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 01 Jan '25 00:00 and 31 Dec '25 23:59 in the ET timezone. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e. 0.97999 or lower). A 24h period of USDT below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2025 will count.

The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the USDT-USD “High” prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/spot/USDT-USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase USDT-USD. If Coinbase stops having the necessary USDT information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDT was below 98 cents for 24h+ may be used to resolve this market.

USDT depeg in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BitBoy convicted?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- US confirms that aliens exist
- Conclusive proof becomes public that the Earth is flat
- Trump says the Moon Landing was faked

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Conspiracy+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Jeff Bezos will be, has, or is in the process of selling a majority stake in The Washington Post by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement by Jeff Bezos or one of his representatives will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced sale actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jeff Bezos however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bezos announce Washington Post sale in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.

This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.

Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

Margin
$151 Vol.
Yes

Crypto Winter
$51 Vol.
No

Prediction Market
$72 Vol.
Yes

SEC / Securities and Exchange Commission
$114 Vol.
Yes

Custodial / Custody
$121 Vol.
Yes

Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation
$272 Vol.
Yes

Institution / Institutional
$252 Vol.
Yes

Staking / Stake
$160 Vol.
Yes

Stablecoin
$249 Vol.
Yes

Shutdown / Shut Down
$30 Vol.
No

Subscription
$347 Vol.
Yes

Bitcoin
$809 Vol.
Yes

Web3
$276 Vol.
Yes

Trading Volume
$103 Vol.
Yes

Ethereum / ETH
$86 Vol.
Yes

International
$98 Vol.
Yes

Blockchain
$640 Vol.
Yes

Decentralized Exchange / DEX
$83 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

Rules

What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

Market Context

What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

About

Related

What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

Margin$151 Vol.Yescircle check

Crypto Winter$51 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Prediction Market$72 Vol.Yescircle check

SEC / Securities and Exchange Commission$114 Vol.Yescircle check

Custodial / Custody$121 Vol.Yescircle check

Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation$272 Vol.Yescircle check

Institution / Institutional$252 Vol.Yescircle check

Staking / Stake$160 Vol.Yescircle check

Stablecoin$249 Vol.Yescircle check

Shutdown / Shut Down$30 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Subscription$347 Vol.Yescircle check

Bitcoin$809 Vol.Yescircle check

Web3$276 Vol.Yescircle check

Trading Volume$103 Vol.Yescircle check

Ethereum / ETH$86 Vol.Yescircle check

International$98 Vol.Yescircle check

Blockchain$640 Vol.Yescircle check

Decentralized Exchange / DEX$83 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

Rules

What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

Market Context

What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call?

About

Related

Margin
$151 Vol.
Yes

Crypto Winter
$51 Vol.
No

Prediction Market
$72 Vol.
Yes

SEC / Securities and Exchange Commission
$114 Vol.
Yes

Custodial / Custody
$121 Vol.
Yes

Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation
$272 Vol.
Yes

Institution / Institutional
$252 Vol.
Yes

Staking / Stake
$160 Vol.
Yes

Stablecoin
$249 Vol.
Yes

Shutdown / Shut Down
$30 Vol.
No

Subscription
$347 Vol.
Yes

Bitcoin
$809 Vol.
Yes

Web3
$276 Vol.
Yes

Trading Volume
$103 Vol.
Yes

Ethereum / ETH
$86 Vol.
Yes

International
$98 Vol.
Yes

Blockchain
$640 Vol.
Yes

Decentralized Exchange / DEX
$83 Vol.
Yes