Escalating US-Iran tensions and threats to the Strait of Hormuz have driven WTI crude oil (CL) futures to a March 31, 2026, front-month settlement of $101.38, capping record first-quarter gains amid supply disruption fears. Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus (>99% implied probability) for prices above $84, backed by real capital wagering on sustained geopolitical premiums despite rising US inventories (+6.2 million barrels week-ended March 13, +6.9 million March 20 per EIA) and OPEC+'s modest 206,000 bpd output hike from April. De-escalation signals briefly pressured prices lower late in the session, but risk appetite dominates; watch April 2 EIA data and Hormuz transit updates for post-resolution volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$32,049 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$84
Yes
$80
Yes
$76
Yes
$72
Yes
$68
Yes
$64
Yes
$60
Yes
$56
Yes
$52
Yes
$48
Yes
$32,049 Vol.
$84
$3,334 Vol.
Yes
$80
$2,889 Vol.
Yes
$76
$3,721 Vol.
Yes
$72
$2,900 Vol.
Yes
$68
$2,728 Vol.
Yes
$64
$3,597 Vol.
Yes
$60
$4,157 Vol.
Yes
$56
$5,006 Vol.
Yes
$52
$2,086 Vol.
Yes
$48
$1,630 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Escalating US-Iran tensions and threats to the Strait of Hormuz have driven WTI crude oil (CL) futures to a March 31, 2026, front-month settlement of $101.38, capping record first-quarter gains amid supply disruption fears. Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus (>99% implied probability) for prices above $84, backed by real capital wagering on sustained geopolitical premiums despite rising US inventories (+6.2 million barrels week-ended March 13, +6.9 million March 20 per EIA) and OPEC+'s modest 206,000 bpd output hike from April. De-escalation signals briefly pressured prices lower late in the session, but risk appetite dominates; watch April 2 EIA data and Hormuz transit updates for post-resolution volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 2:57 PM ET
Volume
$32,049End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Escalating US-Iran tensions and threats to the Strait of Hormuz have driven WTI crude oil (CL) futures to a March 31, 2026, front-month settlement of $101.38, capping record first-quarter gains amid supply disruption fears. Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus (>99% implied probability) for prices above $84, backed by real capital wagering on sustained geopolitical premiums despite rising US inventories (+6.2 million barrels week-ended March 13, +6.9 million March 20 per EIA) and OPEC+'s modest 206,000 bpd output hike from April. De-escalation signals briefly pressured prices lower late in the session, but risk appetite dominates; watch April 2 EIA data and Hormuz transit updates for post-resolution volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$32,049End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Escalating US-Iran tensions and threats to the Strait of Hormuz have driven WTI crude oil (CL) futures to a March 31, 2026, front-month settlement of $101.38, capping record first-quarter gains amid supply disruption fears. Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus (>99% implied probability) for prices above $84, backed by real capital wagering on sustained geopolitical premiums despite rising US inventories (+6.2 million barrels week-ended March 13, +6.9 million March 20 per EIA) and OPEC+'s modest 206,000 bpd output hike from April. De-escalation signals briefly pressured prices lower late in the session, but risk appetite dominates; watch April 2 EIA data and Hormuz transit updates for post-resolution volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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