Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 71% market-implied probability for June WTI crude oil settlement above $84. Recent U.S. diplomatic proposals and tentative de-escalation signals have prompted modest pullbacks from mid-April peaks near $105, yet prices have held above $95 amid persistent supply constraints and inventory draws reported by the EIA. Traders are pricing in sustained tightness from reduced Middle East output, with only limited relief expected from the modest OPEC+ quota increase. Key near-term catalysts include further developments on naval escorts and any reopening timeline for the strait, which could shift the distribution across the $77–$84 and lower bands if resolved quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 71%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 8.1%
$63-$70 2.5%
$161,049 Vol.
$161,049 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<$42
1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
17%
>$84
71%
>$84 71%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 8.1%
$63-$70 2.5%
$161,049 Vol.
$161,049 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<$42
$17,182 Vol.
1%
$42-$49
$5,944 Vol.
<1%
$49-$56
$7,122 Vol.
1%
$56-$63
$7,223 Vol.
2%
$63-$70
$20,833 Vol.
3%
$70-$77
$12,440 Vol.
8%
$77-$84
$13,714 Vol.
17%
>$84
$76,591 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 71% market-implied probability for June WTI crude oil settlement above $84. Recent U.S. diplomatic proposals and tentative de-escalation signals have prompted modest pullbacks from mid-April peaks near $105, yet prices have held above $95 amid persistent supply constraints and inventory draws reported by the EIA. Traders are pricing in sustained tightness from reduced Middle East output, with only limited relief expected from the modest OPEC+ quota increase. Key near-term catalysts include further developments on naval escorts and any reopening timeline for the strait, which could shift the distribution across the $77–$84 and lower bands if resolved quickly.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volume
$161,049End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 71% market-implied probability for June WTI crude oil settlement above $84. Recent U.S. diplomatic proposals and tentative de-escalation signals have prompted modest pullbacks from mid-April peaks near $105, yet prices have held above $95 amid persistent supply constraints and inventory draws reported by the EIA. Traders are pricing in sustained tightness from reduced Middle East output, with only limited relief expected from the modest OPEC+ quota increase. Key near-term catalysts include further developments on naval escorts and any reopening timeline for the strait, which could shift the distribution across the $77–$84 and lower bands if resolved quickly.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$161,049End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 71% market-implied probability for June WTI crude oil settlement above $84. Recent U.S. diplomatic proposals and tentative de-escalation signals have prompted modest pullbacks from mid-April peaks near $105, yet prices have held above $95 amid persistent supply constraints and inventory draws reported by the EIA. Traders are pricing in sustained tightness from reduced Middle East output, with only limited relief expected from the modest OPEC+ quota increase. Key near-term catalysts include further developments on naval escorts and any reopening timeline for the strait, which could shift the distribution across the $77–$84 and lower bands if resolved quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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