WTI crude oil futures (CL) hover near $81.50/bbl, pricing a modest 25% implied probability of hitting $90 by June 30 on Polymarket, driven primarily by OPEC+'s extended production cuts through Q3 offsetting weak Chinese demand signals and building US inventories. EIA data last week showed a surprise 3.7M barrel draw, providing short-term support, but recession fears tied to persistent Fed hawkishness cap upside amid 11 days remaining. Key catalysts include tomorrow's EIA inventory report—traders watch for draws below 2M barrels—and escalating Middle East tensions boosting risk premiums. Historical June volatility averages 15%, with trader capital leaning bearish absent demand surge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$2,357,326 Vol.
↑ $200
13%
↑ $175
14%
↑ $150
21%
↑ $140
25%
↑ $130
35%
↑ $120
42%
↑ $115
49%
↑ $110
48%
↑ $105
57%
↑ $100
66%
↓ $85
83%
↓ $80
71%
↓ $70
42%
↓ $60
24%
↓ $55
19%
↓ $52
14%
↓ $50
7%
↓ $47
6%
↓ $45
3%
↓ $40
3%
↓ $35
2%
$2,357,326 Vol.
↑ $200
13%
↑ $175
14%
↑ $150
21%
↑ $140
25%
↑ $130
35%
↑ $120
42%
↑ $115
49%
↑ $110
48%
↑ $105
57%
↑ $100
66%
↓ $85
83%
↓ $80
71%
↓ $70
42%
↓ $60
24%
↓ $55
19%
↓ $52
14%
↓ $50
7%
↓ $47
6%
↓ $45
3%
↓ $40
3%
↓ $35
2%
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Resolver
0x65070BE91...WTI crude oil futures (CL) hover near $81.50/bbl, pricing a modest 25% implied probability of hitting $90 by June 30 on Polymarket, driven primarily by OPEC+'s extended production cuts through Q3 offsetting weak Chinese demand signals and building US inventories. EIA data last week showed a surprise 3.7M barrel draw, providing short-term support, but recession fears tied to persistent Fed hawkishness cap upside amid 11 days remaining. Key catalysts include tomorrow's EIA inventory report—traders watch for draws below 2M barrels—and escalating Middle East tensions boosting risk premiums. Historical June volatility averages 15%, with trader capital leaning bearish absent demand surge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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