Market icon
Economy·GDP

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?

Market icon
Economy·GDP

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?

Apr 17

Apr 17

4.5-5.0% 54%

5.0-5.5% 43%

5.5-6.0% <1%

4.0-4.5% <1%

Polymarket

$233,299 Vol.

4.5-5.0% 54%

5.0-5.5% 43%

5.5-6.0% <1%

4.0-4.5% <1%

Polymarket

$233,299 Vol.

<3.5%

$16,868 Vol.

<1%

3.5-4.0%

$53,371 Vol.

<1%

4.0-4.5%

$37,167 Vol.

1%

4.5-5.0%

$23,441 Vol.

54%

5.0-5.5%

$23,654 Vol.

43%

5.5-6.0%

$53,759 Vol.

1%

6.0%+

$25,040 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 53.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 GDP growth (Y/Y) of 4.5-5.0% and 43.0% for 5.0-5.5%, reflecting aggregated capital-backed consensus around 4.8-5.0% amid Beijing's freshly set 4.5-5% annual target from the March Two Sessions. Robust Jan-Feb data—industrial output up 6.3% Y/Y, retail sales exceeding forecasts, fixed-asset investment rebounding 1.8% Y/Y—coupled with March manufacturing PMI expanding to 50.4% signal Q1 momentum from exports and high-tech investment, offsetting property sector weakness. Official National Bureau of Statistics Q1 release expected mid-April could shift odds based on final consumption and investment figures.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$233,299
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 53.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 GDP growth (Y/Y) of 4.5-5.0% and 43.0% for 5.0-5.5%, reflecting aggregated capital-backed consensus around 4.8-5.0% amid Beijing's freshly set 4.5-5% annual target from the March Two Sessions. Robust Jan-Feb data—industrial output up 6.3% Y/Y, retail sales exceeding forecasts, fixed-asset investment rebounding 1.8% Y/Y—coupled with March manufacturing PMI expanding to 50.4% signal Q1 momentum from exports and high-tech investment, offsetting property sector weakness. Official National Bureau of Statistics Q1 release expected mid-April could shift odds based on final consumption and investment figures.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$233,299
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Related

Market icon

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

71%
Market icon

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%?

34%
Market icon

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

14%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.5-5.0%" at 54%, followed by "5.0-5.5%" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?" has generated $233.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?" is "4.5-5.0%" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5.0-5.5%" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.