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Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Market icon
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro 56%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 21%

Renan Santos 6.2%

Fernando Haddad 6.0%

Polymarket

$2,676,163 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 56%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 21%

Renan Santos 6.2%

Fernando Haddad 6.0%

Polymarket

$2,676,163 Vol.

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$18,847 Vol.

56%

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$22,975 Vol.

21%

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Renan Santos

$953,299 Vol.

6%

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Fernando Haddad

$623,313 Vol.

6%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$173,901 Vol.

2%

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Romeu Zema

$113,002 Vol.

2%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$65,218 Vol.

1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$592,078 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$40,244 Vol.

<1%

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Camilo Santana

$16,758 Vol.

<1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$22,110 Vol.

<1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$17,188 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$17,230 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-March 2026, including AtlasIntel (18-23 March) showing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% in first-round scenarios, alongside Quaest and Datafolha surveys placing Flávio consistently second behind Lula at 32-42%, drive trader consensus favoring Flávio Bolsonaro for second place ahead of the October 4 first round. Lula leads most multi-candidate fields by 5-7 points amid high undecided rates (10-21%), but Flávio's surge—closing a 12-point gap from February polls—reflects his consolidation of right-wing support following Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility and Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23. Lower odds for Tarcísio de Freitas, Fernando Haddad, and others align with their single-digit showings, underscoring a tight Lula-Flávio duel shaping market positioning.

Recent polls from mid-March 2026, including AtlasIntel (18-23 March) showing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% in first-round scenarios, alongside Quaest and Datafolha surveys placing Flávio consistently second behind Lula at 32-42%, drive trader consensus favoring Flávio Bolsonaro for second place ahead of the October 4 first round. Lula leads most multi-candidate fields by 5-7 points amid high undecided rates (10-21%), but Flávio's surge—closing a 12-point gap from February polls—reflects his consolidation of right-wing support following Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility and Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23. Lower odds for Tarcísio de Freitas, Fernando Haddad, and others align with their single-digit showings, underscoring a tight Lula-Flávio duel shaping market positioning.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-March 2026, including AtlasIntel (18-23 March) showing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% in first-round scenarios, alongside Quaest and Datafolha surveys placing Flávio consistently second behind Lula at 32-42%, drive trader consensus favoring Flávio Bolsonaro for second place ahead of the October 4 first round. Lula leads most multi-candidate fields by 5-7 points amid high undecided rates (10-21%), but Flávio's surge—closing a 12-point gap from February polls—reflects his consolidation of right-wing support following Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility and Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23. Lower odds for Tarcísio de Freitas, Fernando Haddad, and others align with their single-digit showings, underscoring a tight Lula-Flávio duel shaping market positioning.

Recent polls from mid-March 2026, including AtlasIntel (18-23 March) showing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% in first-round scenarios, alongside Quaest and Datafolha surveys placing Flávio consistently second behind Lula at 32-42%, drive trader consensus favoring Flávio Bolsonaro for second place ahead of the October 4 first round. Lula leads most multi-candidate fields by 5-7 points amid high undecided rates (10-21%), but Flávio's surge—closing a 12-point gap from February polls—reflects his consolidation of right-wing support following Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility and Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23. Lower odds for Tarcísio de Freitas, Fernando Haddad, and others align with their single-digit showings, underscoring a tight Lula-Flávio duel shaping market positioning.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

34%
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

37%
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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

14%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 56%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.