Market icon
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Market icon
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro 56%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 24%

Renan Santos 6.2%

Fernando Haddad 6.0%

Polymarket

$2,675,152 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 56%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 24%

Renan Santos 6.2%

Fernando Haddad 6.0%

Polymarket

$2,675,152 Vol.

Market icon

Flávio Bolsonaro

$18,847 Vol.

56%

Market icon

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$22,103 Vol.

24%

Market icon

Renan Santos

$953,294 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Fernando Haddad

$623,292 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Ronaldo Caiado

$173,824 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Romeu Zema

$112,980 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Tarcisio de Freitas

$65,214 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ratinho Júnior

$592,073 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Geraldo Alckmin

$40,241 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Camilo Santana

$16,758 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Michelle Bolsonaro

$22,110 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Jair Bolsonaro

$17,188 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$17,230 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling conducted March 18-23 reveals President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.9% to 40.1% in first-round voting intentions for the October 4 election, with Renan Santos trailing far behind at 4.4% and other governors like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema fragmented below 4%, driving trader consensus toward Flávio as the clear second-place frontrunner. Flávio's surge from mid-30s in prior surveys stems from Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, the right-wing field's consolidation after Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal, and Lula's slipping approval amid economic headwinds. Upcoming debates and regional primaries could further test this tight matchup, where undecideds and turnout in swing Northeast states remain pivotal.

Recent AtlasIntel polling conducted March 18-23 reveals President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.9% to 40.1% in first-round voting intentions for the October 4 election, with Renan Santos trailing far behind at 4.4% and other governors like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema fragmented below 4%, driving trader consensus toward Flávio as the clear second-place frontrunner. Flávio's surge from mid-30s in prior surveys stems from Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, the right-wing field's consolidation after Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal, and Lula's slipping approval amid economic headwinds. Upcoming debates and regional primaries could further test this tight matchup, where undecideds and turnout in swing Northeast states remain pivotal.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling conducted March 18-23 reveals President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.9% to 40.1% in first-round voting intentions for the October 4 election, with Renan Santos trailing far behind at 4.4% and other governors like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema fragmented below 4%, driving trader consensus toward Flávio as the clear second-place frontrunner. Flávio's surge from mid-30s in prior surveys stems from Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, the right-wing field's consolidation after Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal, and Lula's slipping approval amid economic headwinds. Upcoming debates and regional primaries could further test this tight matchup, where undecideds and turnout in swing Northeast states remain pivotal.

Recent AtlasIntel polling conducted March 18-23 reveals President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.9% to 40.1% in first-round voting intentions for the October 4 election, with Renan Santos trailing far behind at 4.4% and other governors like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema fragmented below 4%, driving trader consensus toward Flávio as the clear second-place frontrunner. Flávio's surge from mid-30s in prior surveys stems from Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, the right-wing field's consolidation after Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal, and Lula's slipping approval amid economic headwinds. Upcoming debates and regional primaries could further test this tight matchup, where undecideds and turnout in swing Northeast states remain pivotal.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

33%
Market icon

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

37%
Market icon

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

16%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 56%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.