Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at end of March at 99.5%, reflecting verified maritime tracking data amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis that erupted late February. Iranian IRGC forces imposed a de facto blockade with selective tolled passages for "non-hostile" vessels, slashing traffic from a historical 130+ daily average to 6-11 ships per day by late March, per Lloyd's List Intelligence, UNCTAD, and Joint Maritime Information Center reports totaling around 200 transits for the month. Escalatory military actions, GPS jamming, vessel strikes, and withdrawn insurance halted most tanker and container flows. Resolution hinges on official end-of-March averages from primary sources like AIS data; challenges could arise from revised counts, dark pool transits, or disputes over methodology, though structural crisis dynamics make higher bins improbable absent de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
0-10 99.5%
10-20 <1%
60+ <1%
20-30 <1%
$1,607,683 Vol.
$1,607,683 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
0-10
100%
10-20
1%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 99.5%
10-20 <1%
60+ <1%
20-30 <1%
$1,607,683 Vol.
$1,607,683 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
0-10
$489,981 Vol.
100%
10-20
$294,191 Vol.
1%
20-30
$126,383 Vol.
<1%
30-40
$293,672 Vol.
<1%
40-50
$222,040 Vol.
<1%
50-60
$88,771 Vol.
<1%
60+
$92,645 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at end of March at 99.5%, reflecting verified maritime tracking data amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis that erupted late February. Iranian IRGC forces imposed a de facto blockade with selective tolled passages for "non-hostile" vessels, slashing traffic from a historical 130+ daily average to 6-11 ships per day by late March, per Lloyd's List Intelligence, UNCTAD, and Joint Maritime Information Center reports totaling around 200 transits for the month. Escalatory military actions, GPS jamming, vessel strikes, and withdrawn insurance halted most tanker and container flows. Resolution hinges on official end-of-March averages from primary sources like AIS data; challenges could arise from revised counts, dark pool transits, or disputes over methodology, though structural crisis dynamics make higher bins improbable absent de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,607,683End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at end of March at 99.5%, reflecting verified maritime tracking data amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis that erupted late February. Iranian IRGC forces imposed a de facto blockade with selective tolled passages for "non-hostile" vessels, slashing traffic from a historical 130+ daily average to 6-11 ships per day by late March, per Lloyd's List Intelligence, UNCTAD, and Joint Maritime Information Center reports totaling around 200 transits for the month. Escalatory military actions, GPS jamming, vessel strikes, and withdrawn insurance halted most tanker and container flows. Resolution hinges on official end-of-March averages from primary sources like AIS data; challenges could arise from revised counts, dark pool transits, or disputes over methodology, though structural crisis dynamics make higher bins improbable absent de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,607,683End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at end of March at 99.5%, reflecting verified maritime tracking data amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis that erupted late February. Iranian IRGC forces imposed a de facto blockade with selective tolled passages for "non-hostile" vessels, slashing traffic from a historical 130+ daily average to 6-11 ships per day by late March, per Lloyd's List Intelligence, UNCTAD, and Joint Maritime Information Center reports totaling around 200 transits for the month. Escalatory military actions, GPS jamming, vessel strikes, and withdrawn insurance halted most tanker and container flows. Resolution hinges on official end-of-March averages from primary sources like AIS data; challenges could arise from revised counts, dark pool transits, or disputes over methodology, though structural crisis dynamics make higher bins improbable absent de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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