Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—occurring globally only one to three times per century per USGS historical data, with none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.0-9.1. The past 15 years align with this low baseline rate, and recent seismic activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka Mw8.8 subduction zone rupture that fell short of M9 despite similarities to the 1952 event, has not signaled precursors like accelerated slip or foreshocks in high-risk zones such as Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra. USGS real-time monitoring via the National Earthquake Information Center shows no unusual strain buildup, though inherent forecasting uncertainty persists; watch for aftershock sequences or geodetic data updates that could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$176,041 Vol.
$176,041 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$176,041 Vol.
$176,041 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—occurring globally only one to three times per century per USGS historical data, with none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.0-9.1. The past 15 years align with this low baseline rate, and recent seismic activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka Mw8.8 subduction zone rupture that fell short of M9 despite similarities to the 1952 event, has not signaled precursors like accelerated slip or foreshocks in high-risk zones such as Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra. USGS real-time monitoring via the National Earthquake Information Center shows no unusual strain buildup, though inherent forecasting uncertainty persists; watch for aftershock sequences or geodetic data updates that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$176,041End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—occurring globally only one to three times per century per USGS historical data, with none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.0-9.1. The past 15 years align with this low baseline rate, and recent seismic activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka Mw8.8 subduction zone rupture that fell short of M9 despite similarities to the 1952 event, has not signaled precursors like accelerated slip or foreshocks in high-risk zones such as Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra. USGS real-time monitoring via the National Earthquake Information Center shows no unusual strain buildup, though inherent forecasting uncertainty persists; watch for aftershock sequences or geodetic data updates that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$176,041End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—occurring globally only one to three times per century per USGS historical data, with none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.0-9.1. The past 15 years align with this low baseline rate, and recent seismic activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka Mw8.8 subduction zone rupture that fell short of M9 despite similarities to the 1952 event, has not signaled precursors like accelerated slip or foreshocks in high-risk zones such as Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra. USGS real-time monitoring via the National Earthquake Information Center shows no unusual strain buildup, though inherent forecasting uncertainty persists; watch for aftershock sequences or geodetic data updates that could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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