Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
$393,970 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
February 3
$122,773 Vol.
7%
February 3
$122,773 Vol.
7%
February 4
$25,956 Vol.
39%
February 4
$25,956 Vol.
39%
February 5
$14,770 Vol.
60%
February 5
$14,770 Vol.
60%
February 6
$9,006 Vol.
44%
February 6
$9,006 Vol.
44%
February 7
$12,582 Vol.
55%
February 7
$12,582 Vol.
55%
Normas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Creado en: Jan 27, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volumen
$393,970Fecha de finalización
Feb 28, 2026Creado en
Jan 27, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
$393,970 Vol.
February 3
$122,773 Vol.
7%
February 4
$25,956 Vol.
39%
February 5
$14,770 Vol.
60%
February 6
$9,006 Vol.
44%
February 7
$12,582 Vol.
55%
Acerca de
Volumen
$393,970Fecha de finalización
Feb 28, 2026Creado en
Jan 27, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.