Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon
Política·Israel

¿Israel atacará Gaza el...?

Market icon
Política·Israel

¿Israel atacará Gaza el...?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Mar 31

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Mar 31

$6,929,664 Vol.

Nov 7, 2025
Polymarket

$6,929,664 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de octubre

$77,645 Vol.

Sí

31 de octubre

$153,814 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 1 de noviembre

$77,419 Vol.

No

2 de noviembre

$104,552 Vol.

Sí

3 de noviembre

$79,019 Vol.

Sí

4 de noviembre

$126,778 Vol.

Sí

Título del grupo: 5 de noviembre

$203,702 Vol.

No

6 de noviembre

$49,111 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 7 de noviembre

$35,457 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 8 de noviembre

$15,571 Vol.

Sí

9 de noviembre

$1,280,816 Vol.

No

10 de noviembre

$61,561 Vol.

Sí

11 de noviembre

$29,870 Vol.

No

12 de noviembre

$92,584 Vol.

Sí

13 de noviembre

$54,020 Vol.

No

14 de noviembre

$45,955 Vol.

No

15 de noviembre

$42,589 Vol.

No

16 de noviembre

$83,132 Vol.

Sí

17 de noviembre

$87,333 Vol.

Sí

18 de noviembre

$85,671 Vol.

No

19 de noviembre

$44,963 Vol.

Sí

20 de noviembre

$54,782 Vol.

Sí

Título del ítem del grupo: 21 de noviembre

$26,088 Vol.

Sí

22 de noviembre

$21,268 Vol.

Sí

23 de noviembre

$30,534 Vol.

No

24 de noviembre

$14,365 Vol.

Sí

25 de noviembre

$59,307 Vol.

No

26 de noviembre

$53,317 Vol.

Sí

27 de noviembre

$33,245 Vol.

No

28 de noviembre

$12,086 Vol.

Sí

29 de noviembre

$11,476 Vol.

Sí

Título del ítem del grupo: 30 de noviembre

$1,857,452 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 1 de diciembre

$62,509 Vol.

Sí

2 de diciembre

$106,063 Vol.

Sí

3 de diciembre

$147,719 Vol.

Sí

4 de diciembre

$85,586 Vol.

No

5 de diciembre

$71,822 Vol.

Sí

6 de diciembre

$139,818 Vol.

No

Título del grupo: 7 de diciembre

$60,961 Vol.

No

8 de diciembre

$131,667 Vol.

Sí

9 de diciembre

$57,324 Vol.

No

10 de diciembre

$35,639 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 11 de diciembre

$31,527 Vol.

No

12 de diciembre

$18,538 Vol.

No

13 de diciembre

$15,811 Vol.

Sí

14 de diciembre

$44,676 Vol.

No

15 de diciembre

$15,593 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 16 de diciembre

$19,598 Vol.

No

17 de diciembre

$54,038 Vol.

No

18 de diciembre

$20,785 Vol.

Sí

19 de diciembre

$18,414 Vol.

Sí

20 de diciembre

$156,923 Vol.

Sí

Título del ítem del grupo: 21 de diciembre

$95,642 Vol.

Sí

22 de diciembre

$103,890 Vol.

No

23 de diciembre

$42,350 Vol.

No

24 de diciembre

$79,828 Vol.

No

25 de diciembre

$97,271 Vol.

Sí

26 de diciembre

$90,936 Vol.

No

27 de diciembre

$29,623 Vol.

No

28 de diciembre

$19,861 Vol.

No

29 de diciembre

$18,062 Vol.

No

30 de diciembre

$23,206 Vol.

No

31 de diciembre

$28,504 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$6,929,664
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2025
Mercado abierto
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Resultado propuesto: Sí

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Israel atacará Gaza el...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 63+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de octubre" at 100%, followed by "2 de noviembre" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Israel atacará Gaza el...?" has generated $6.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Israel atacará Gaza el...?," browse the 63+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿Israel atacará Gaza el...?" is "30 de octubre" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2 de noviembre" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿Israel atacará Gaza el...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.