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Geopolítica·Israel

¿Israel usará armas nucleares contra Irán para el 31 de enero?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel

¿Israel usará armas nucleares contra Irán para el 31 de enero?

Ended: Jan 31

Ended: Jan 31

Sí

<1% chance
Polymarket

$4,959,389 Vol.

Sí

<1% chance
Polymarket

$4,959,389 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a nuclear strike on Iranian soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory.

Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless.

Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$4,959,389
Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026
Creado en
Jan 7, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a nuclear strike on Iranian soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory. Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless. Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a nuclear strike on Iranian soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory.

Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless.

Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$4,959,389
Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026
Creado en
Jan 7, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a nuclear strike on Iranian soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory. Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless. Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Israel usará armas nucleares contra Irán para el 31 de enero?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "¿Uso de armas nucleares por parte de Israel contra Irán antes del 31 de enero?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Israel usará armas nucleares contra Irán para el 31 de enero?" has generated $5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Israel usará armas nucleares contra Irán para el 31 de enero?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "¿Israel usará armas nucleares contra Irán para el 31 de enero?" is "¿Uso de armas nucleares por parte de Israel contra Irán antes del 31 de enero?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "¿Israel usará armas nucleares contra Irán para el 31 de enero?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.