Israel’s government has prioritized de facto control through accelerated settlement construction, outpost legalization, and land administration reforms in the West Bank rather than formal annexation declarations. Recent moves include new tenders, state land designations, and infrastructure tying settlements to Israel, occurring amid coalition pressures from far-right ministers and ahead of the October 2026 Knesset election. International opposition, including from the United States, combined with legal and diplomatic risks of explicit sovereignty claims, has kept formal annexation off the immediate agenda. Traders assign 96% probability to no annexation before 2027 because these incremental steps avoid the threshold of a sovereignty vote while elections and external constraints limit bolder action. Late shifts could arise from a post-election coalition realignment or major security developments altering risk calculations.