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Geopolítica·Israel

¿Se anexionará Israel el territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel

¿Se anexionará Israel el territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Sí

12% chance
Polymarket

$49,865 Vol.

Sí

12% chance
Polymarket

$49,865 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices no Israeli annexation of West Bank territory before 2027 at 88.5%, reflecting Prime Minister Netanyahu's repeated prioritization of security threats over territorial expansion amid the ongoing Gaza war and recent escalations with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Far-right coalition partners like Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir continue advocating sovereignty declarations over Area C settlements and the Jordan Valley, but no Knesset votes or executive actions have advanced formal annexation in the past 30 days. Strong US opposition under the Biden administration, alongside EU and UN diplomatic pressure following the ICJ's July advisory opinion on occupation illegality, reinforces barriers; a Trump victory in the November 5 election could shift dynamics, though historical patterns show Netanyahu's caution to preserve alliances.

Trader consensus prices no Israeli annexation of West Bank territory before 2027 at 88.5%, reflecting Prime Minister Netanyahu's repeated prioritization of security threats over territorial expansion amid the ongoing Gaza war and recent escalations with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Far-right coalition partners like Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir continue advocating sovereignty declarations over Area C settlements and the Jordan Valley, but no Knesset votes or executive actions have advanced formal annexation in the past 30 days. Strong US opposition under the Biden administration, alongside EU and UN diplomatic pressure following the ICJ's July advisory opinion on occupation illegality, reinforces barriers; a Trump victory in the November 5 election could shift dynamics, though historical patterns show Netanyahu's caution to preserve alliances.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices no Israeli annexation of West Bank territory before 2027 at 88.5%, reflecting Prime Minister Netanyahu's repeated prioritization of security threats over territorial expansion amid the ongoing Gaza war and recent escalations with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Far-right coalition partners like Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir continue advocating sovereignty declarations over Area C settlements and the Jordan Valley, but no Knesset votes or executive actions have advanced formal annexation in the past 30 days. Strong US opposition under the Biden administration, alongside EU and UN diplomatic pressure following the ICJ's July advisory opinion on occupation illegality, reinforces barriers; a Trump victory in the November 5 election could shift dynamics, though historical patterns show Netanyahu's caution to preserve alliances.

Trader consensus prices no Israeli annexation of West Bank territory before 2027 at 88.5%, reflecting Prime Minister Netanyahu's repeated prioritization of security threats over territorial expansion amid the ongoing Gaza war and recent escalations with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Far-right coalition partners like Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir continue advocating sovereignty declarations over Area C settlements and the Jordan Valley, but no Knesset votes or executive actions have advanced formal annexation in the past 30 days. Strong US opposition under the Biden administration, alongside EU and UN diplomatic pressure following the ICJ's July advisory opinion on occupation illegality, reinforces barriers; a Trump victory in the November 5 election could shift dynamics, though historical patterns show Netanyahu's caution to preserve alliances.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

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Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Se anexionará Israel el territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Anexionará Israel territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?" con 12%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 12¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 12% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Se anexionará Israel el territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?" ha generado $49.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Se anexionará Israel el territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Se anexionará Israel el territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?" es "¿Anexionará Israel territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?" con 12%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 12% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Se anexionará Israel el territorio de Cisjordania antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.