Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced sharp reductions in permanent resident targets on October 24, 2024—dropping to 380,000 for 2026 from prior highs—alongside caps on temporary residents and international students, responding to housing shortages and infrastructure strains. Statistics Canada data shows population growth slowing to 1.1% year-over-year as of July 2024, the lowest in decades, yet quarterly estimates confirm continued positive growth driven by natural increase and remaining immigration. Historical records indicate no annual population decline since Confederation, making a 2026 drop improbable and precluding a "largest on record." Traders price "No" at 57% reflecting these policy adjustments and projections from sources like the Conference Board of Canada, which forecast modest 2026 growth around 0.5–1%, with a potential 2025 federal election as a key uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Será la caída de la población de Canadá en 2026 la más grande registrada?
¿Será la caída de la población de Canadá en 2026 la más grande registrada?
Sí
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2027
Sí
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced sharp reductions in permanent resident targets on October 24, 2024—dropping to 380,000 for 2026 from prior highs—alongside caps on temporary residents and international students, responding to housing shortages and infrastructure strains. Statistics Canada data shows population growth slowing to 1.1% year-over-year as of July 2024, the lowest in decades, yet quarterly estimates confirm continued positive growth driven by natural increase and remaining immigration. Historical records indicate no annual population decline since Confederation, making a 2026 drop improbable and precluding a "largest on record." Traders price "No" at 57% reflecting these policy adjustments and projections from sources like the Conference Board of Canada, which forecast modest 2026 growth around 0.5–1%, with a potential 2025 federal election as a key uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced sharp reductions in permanent resident targets on October 24, 2024—dropping to 380,000 for 2026 from prior highs—alongside caps on temporary residents and international students, responding to housing shortages and infrastructure strains. Statistics Canada data shows population growth slowing to 1.1% year-over-year as of July 2024, the lowest in decades, yet quarterly estimates confirm continued positive growth driven by natural increase and remaining immigration. Historical records indicate no annual population decline since Confederation, making a 2026 drop improbable and precluding a "largest on record." Traders price "No" at 57% reflecting these policy adjustments and projections from sources like the Conference Board of Canada, which forecast modest 2026 growth around 0.5–1%, with a potential 2025 federal election as a key uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced sharp reductions in permanent resident targets on October 24, 2024—dropping to 380,000 for 2026 from prior highs—alongside caps on temporary residents and international students, responding to housing shortages and infrastructure strains. Statistics Canada data shows population growth slowing to 1.1% year-over-year as of July 2024, the lowest in decades, yet quarterly estimates confirm continued positive growth driven by natural increase and remaining immigration. Historical records indicate no annual population decline since Confederation, making a 2026 drop improbable and precluding a "largest on record." Traders price "No" at 57% reflecting these policy adjustments and projections from sources like the Conference Board of Canada, which forecast modest 2026 growth around 0.5–1%, with a potential 2025 federal election as a key uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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