Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record in 2025, dropping 0.2% or 102,436 people to 41.5 million by January 1, 2026, primarily due to a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents amid tightened study and work permit policies. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February analysis projects flat zero growth for 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while curbing temporary arrivals to 385,000. Traders price "No" at 56.5%, reflecting consensus that net migration stabilization and slowing non-permanent outflows will prevent a larger drop than 2025's record, though quarterly estimates and permit revisions could shift dynamics ahead of full 2026 data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Será la caída de la población de Canadá en 2026 la más grande registrada?
¿Será la caída de la población de Canadá en 2026 la más grande registrada?
Sí
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2027
Sí
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record in 2025, dropping 0.2% or 102,436 people to 41.5 million by January 1, 2026, primarily due to a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents amid tightened study and work permit policies. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February analysis projects flat zero growth for 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while curbing temporary arrivals to 385,000. Traders price "No" at 56.5%, reflecting consensus that net migration stabilization and slowing non-permanent outflows will prevent a larger drop than 2025's record, though quarterly estimates and permit revisions could shift dynamics ahead of full 2026 data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record in 2025, dropping 0.2% or 102,436 people to 41.5 million by January 1, 2026, primarily due to a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents amid tightened study and work permit policies. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February analysis projects flat zero growth for 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while curbing temporary arrivals to 385,000. Traders price "No" at 56.5%, reflecting consensus that net migration stabilization and slowing non-permanent outflows will prevent a larger drop than 2025's record, though quarterly estimates and permit revisions could shift dynamics ahead of full 2026 data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record in 2025, dropping 0.2% or 102,436 people to 41.5 million by January 1, 2026, primarily due to a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents amid tightened study and work permit policies. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February analysis projects flat zero growth for 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while curbing temporary arrivals to 385,000. Traders price "No" at 56.5%, reflecting consensus that net migration stabilization and slowing non-permanent outflows will prevent a larger drop than 2025's record, though quarterly estimates and permit revisions could shift dynamics ahead of full 2026 data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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