Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—direct confrontations have de-escalated, with no verified follow-up military actions from Israel, the US, or allies in the subsequent months. Trader consensus prices reflect this standoff, pricing low odds for new strikes by March 31, 2025, amid diplomatic signals from Washington emphasizing sanctions and deterrence over escalation, alongside Iran's continued proxy support via Houthis and Hezbollah without provoking broader retaliation. Incoming Trump administration priorities, including potential JCPOA revival talks or heightened naval presence in the Gulf, represent key catalysts, though structural barriers like avoiding oil disruptions and nuclear site risks favor restraint unless provoked by major attacks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$10,213,295 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arabia Saudita
12%
EAU
7%
Qatar
4%
Bahréin
3%
Kuwait
2%
Reino Unido
1%
Cualquier país de la UE
1%
Jordania
1%
Turquía
1%
Francia
1%
Omán
1%
Alemania
<1%
Canadá
<1%
$10,213,295 Vol.
Arabia Saudita
$2,034,967 Vol.
12%
EAU
$2,534,318 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$926,384 Vol.
4%
Bahréin
$386,444 Vol.
3%
Kuwait
$206,606 Vol.
2%
Reino Unido
$931,837 Vol.
1%
Cualquier país de la UE
$451,068 Vol.
1%
Jordania
$183,019 Vol.
1%
Turquía
$469,951 Vol.
1%
Francia
$722,115 Vol.
1%
Omán
$128,149 Vol.
1%
Alemania
$905,087 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$333,350 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—direct confrontations have de-escalated, with no verified follow-up military actions from Israel, the US, or allies in the subsequent months. Trader consensus prices reflect this standoff, pricing low odds for new strikes by March 31, 2025, amid diplomatic signals from Washington emphasizing sanctions and deterrence over escalation, alongside Iran's continued proxy support via Houthis and Hezbollah without provoking broader retaliation. Incoming Trump administration priorities, including potential JCPOA revival talks or heightened naval presence in the Gulf, represent key catalysts, though structural barriers like avoiding oil disruptions and nuclear site risks favor restraint unless provoked by major attacks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,213,295Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—direct confrontations have de-escalated, with no verified follow-up military actions from Israel, the US, or allies in the subsequent months. Trader consensus prices reflect this standoff, pricing low odds for new strikes by March 31, 2025, amid diplomatic signals from Washington emphasizing sanctions and deterrence over escalation, alongside Iran's continued proxy support via Houthis and Hezbollah without provoking broader retaliation. Incoming Trump administration priorities, including potential JCPOA revival talks or heightened naval presence in the Gulf, represent key catalysts, though structural barriers like avoiding oil disruptions and nuclear site risks favor restraint unless provoked by major attacks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,213,295Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—direct confrontations have de-escalated, with no verified follow-up military actions from Israel, the US, or allies in the subsequent months. Trader consensus prices reflect this standoff, pricing low odds for new strikes by March 31, 2025, amid diplomatic signals from Washington emphasizing sanctions and deterrence over escalation, alongside Iran's continued proxy support via Houthis and Hezbollah without provoking broader retaliation. Incoming Trump administration priorities, including potential JCPOA revival talks or heightened naval presence in the Gulf, represent key catalysts, though structural barriers like avoiding oil disruptions and nuclear site risks favor restraint unless provoked by major attacks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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