Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5% in Utah's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+14 partisan lean—87th most Republican nationally—and historical GOP dominance, including 63% wins in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March 4 retirement announcement, prompted by court-imposed redistricting, opened the seat but failed to boost Democrats, whose candidates like Archie Williams III and Jonny Larsen trail in fundraising against GOP frontrunner Mike Kennedy's $292,000 cash on hand. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, with no polls indicating competitiveness. Potential shifts include GOP convention turmoil on April 25, nominee scandal, health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though safe-district base rates suggest low upset risk ahead of the June 23 primaries and November 3 general.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoUT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
UT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
91%
Partido Demócrata
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
$799 Vol.
91%
Partido Demócrata
$2,061 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5% in Utah's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+14 partisan lean—87th most Republican nationally—and historical GOP dominance, including 63% wins in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March 4 retirement announcement, prompted by court-imposed redistricting, opened the seat but failed to boost Democrats, whose candidates like Archie Williams III and Jonny Larsen trail in fundraising against GOP frontrunner Mike Kennedy's $292,000 cash on hand. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, with no polls indicating competitiveness. Potential shifts include GOP convention turmoil on April 25, nominee scandal, health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though safe-district base rates suggest low upset risk ahead of the June 23 primaries and November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$2,860Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5% in Utah's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+14 partisan lean—87th most Republican nationally—and historical GOP dominance, including 63% wins in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March 4 retirement announcement, prompted by court-imposed redistricting, opened the seat but failed to boost Democrats, whose candidates like Archie Williams III and Jonny Larsen trail in fundraising against GOP frontrunner Mike Kennedy's $292,000 cash on hand. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, with no polls indicating competitiveness. Potential shifts include GOP convention turmoil on April 25, nominee scandal, health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though safe-district base rates suggest low upset risk ahead of the June 23 primaries and November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$2,860Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5% in Utah's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+14 partisan lean—87th most Republican nationally—and historical GOP dominance, including 63% wins in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March 4 retirement announcement, prompted by court-imposed redistricting, opened the seat but failed to boost Democrats, whose candidates like Archie Williams III and Jonny Larsen trail in fundraising against GOP frontrunner Mike Kennedy's $292,000 cash on hand. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, with no polls indicating competitiveness. Potential shifts include GOP convention turmoil on April 25, nominee scandal, health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though safe-district base rates suggest low upset risk ahead of the June 23 primaries and November 3 general.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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